Aug.05

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

There Are Important Primaries Tomorrow

Four states are holding primary elections tomorrow: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. Some of them are highly contested or otherwise important. Here is a brief rundown:

• Kansas: The biggest fight here is in KS-02, which is R+11, a hugely gerrymandered district in the eastern part of the state that runs from the Nebraska border to the Oklahoma border with large chunks missing. It also includes part of the Kansas City suburbs (most of Kansas City is not in Kansas, however; it is in Missouri). After Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-KS) announced his retirement, five Republicans jumped in, so it has been a real mudfight. Donald Trump is backing former Kansas AG Derek Schmidt, so he is probably the favorite. The Democratic primary pits Nancy Boyda, who held the seat from 2007 to 2009, against former University of Kansas basketball player Matt Kleinmann.
  
  In KS-03, three Republicans are gunning for Rep. Sharice Davids (D-KS), who will be defending an R+1 district that is not gerrymandered (much) and consists of four entire counties in the eastern part of the state and the southern half of another county. The NRCC is backing physician Prasanth Reddy against small business owner Karen Crnkovich. If the battle is who has the easiest-to-remember first name, she wins, but if it's the last name that matters, he wins.
  
  
• Michigan: Here the biggest prize is the open Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI). There are primaries on both sides. The Democratic establishment is lined up behind Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI). She faces left-wing actor Hill Harper. Slotkin had $8.7 million in her campaign account on July 17, and is expected to crush Harper like a bug. On the Republican side, the GOP establishment is pushing for former representative Mike Rogers. He had $2.5 million in July. He faces former representative Justin Amash and physician Sherry O'Donnell, and is considered the favorite. The general election will be a real barnburner, with money pouring into Michigan from the entire country. The combination of being a swing state in the presidential election and this Senate race is going to make Michigan the center of the political universe for the next three months.
  
  Since Slotkin is running for the Senate, her House seat in MI-07 is vacant. The Lansing-based district is R+2. However, there is no drama in the primary, as both parties have a candidate who is unopposed. The Democrat is Curtis Hertel, a former state senator, and the Republican is Tom Barrett. Barrett, also a former state senator, ran against Slotkin in 2022 and lost by 5 points. Hertel will have to fight hard to hang onto this Republican-leaning swing district.
  
  There is a key House race in Michigan that is up for grabs: MI-08, because Rep. Dan Kildee (D-MI) is retiring. The PVI is D+1, so it is an open swing seat in a swing state. There will be much swinging here. The district runs from north of Midland, through Saginaw, down to south of Flint and borders Lake Huron. Three notable Democrats are in the race to succeed Kildee. They are state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, former Flint mayor Matt Collier, and President of the Michigan Board of Education Pamela Pugh. Rivet and Collier are white; Pugh is Black. Kildee is backing Rivet and she has outraised the others. On the Republican side, Paul Junge, a former deputy D.A., ran against Kildee in 2022 and lost by 10 points. He is running again, against Mary Draves, a former executive at Dow Chemical, and small business owner Anthony Hudson. With so many unknowns, there is a real possibility of the seat turning red in November.
  
  MI-03 is another swing district but it has an incumbent. It covers Grand Rapids and west to Lake Michigan. It is D+1 and two Republicans are fighting to challenge Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-MI). One is attorney Paul Hudson and the other is businessman Michael Markey. Both are self-funding.
  
  MI-10 is a slightly Republican (R+3) district north of Detroit. Rep. John James (R-MI) is unopposed. Four Democrats are running for the nomination, but James is strongly favored.
  
  
• Missouri: Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO), who represents St. Louis in a D+27 district, is fighting for her political life. It's not that she can't win the general election, it's that she might not make it that far. She is a pro-Palestinian progressive firebrand and member of The Squad who has drawn a lot of criticism, a serious primary challenger, and a lot of outside money aimed at defeating her. The challenger is Wesley Bell, the St. Louis County D.A. Both Bush and Bell are Black, so that factor cancels out. Bell is much more moderate than Bush and has campaigned on his record of putting criminals in prison, but Gaza is also an issue in the race. Pro-Israel groups have spent $9 million targeting Bush on Israel. The total amount of outside money in the race is $15 million, which is enormous for a House primary. Bell has outspent Bush five to one in the last few weeks. The largest newspaper in the district, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, has endorsed Bell. Much of the Democratic establishment has rallied around Bush. This could be a test of how potent Gaza is as an issue. If Bell wins, especially if he wins big, it will show that being pro-Palestinian might get you an invitation to speak at Columbia University, but it won't get you a seat in Congress. Since the district is D+27, the general election is just a formality and it doesn't matter who the Republicans nominate.
  
  There is a competitive primary in MO-03, another massively gerrymandered district, at R+16. Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-MO) is hanging up his hat and seven Republicans want a shot at this sure-fire red district. Bob Onder, who founded Missouri's answer to the House Freedom Caucus, has Donald Trump's endorsement, and that might well be enough in a badly fractured field. Or maybe not; Luetkemeyer has endorsed attorney Kurt Schaefer, who has pulled in $7 million in funding from outside the state.
  
  There is also a Senate race in Missouri, as Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) is running for reelection. He is unopposed and had $5.7 million in the bank on July 17. There is a primary on the Democratic side. Lucas Kunce, who had $4.2 million on July 17, is the best known candidate and expected to win the primary and then lose the general election.
  
  
• Washington: The biggest fight here is going to be in WA-03, currently represented by Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA). The district, which is R+5, is in the southwestern corner of the state, with the Columbia River being its southern boundary. Perez is one of only five Democrats who represent a district Donald Trump won in 2020. Washington has jungle primaries, like California, with a runoff between the top two candidates in November. She is likely to face Joe Kent (R) again, as she did in 2022. Perez has more money than Kent, $3.8 million to $585,000, but Kent can count on Donald Trump showing up to help since Kent is exceedingly Trumpish. Perez understands this; she used to be somewhere between "center-left" and "progressive," but since she set her sights on this seat a couple of years ago, she became the ultimate blue dog.
  
  Three other districts are also getting a lot of attention. WA-04 is interesting because, of the 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump after the Jan. 6 coup attempt, only two are still in Congress. Trump managed to get rid of the other eight and is trying to get rid of one of the remaining ones, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-WA), in this R+11 district, which runs from Canada to Oregon in the middle of the state. Trump is supporting Navy veteran Jerrod Sessler. Also in the race is Tiffany Smiley, who wasn't at all smiley when she lost the Senate race in 2022.
  
  WA-05 is not at all gerrymandered (in fact; none of Washington is, as the maps have been drawn by a redistricting commission since the 1990s). It is close to a nice rectangle running from Canada to Oregon along the eastern edge of the state. This is the district from which Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) is retiring. Six Republicans and five Democrats have entered the jungle primary. The Republicans include Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner, state Rep. Jacqulin Maycumber, Trump administration official Brian Dansel, and Spokane City Council member Jonathan Bingle. The top fundraisers on the Democratic side are OB/GYN Bernadine Bank, who is an abortion-rights supporter (surprise!), former diplomat Carmela Conroy, and small businesswoman Ann Marie Danimus. The district is R+8, so the Democrat in the race will have their work cut out for them, and then some.
  
  The third district attracting interest in the Evergreen State is WA-06, which is the seat of retiring Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-WA). The district, which covers the Olympic Peninsula, is D+6, so the Democrat has the edge. The Democrats are hosting a fierce battle between state Sen. Emily Randall and state Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz. Both have endorsements from high-profile Democrats. The only Republican to raise any money is state Sen. Drew MacEwen. It could end up being the two women at each other's throats until November, or else one of them against MacEwen.
  
  Rep. Kim Schrier (D-WA) faces three challengers in the D+1 swing district WA-08, one Republican and two Democrats. She will probably end up facing the Republican, banker Carmen Goers, and beating her.

That's a lot of attention to House races, but these primaries could ultimately determine which party controls the House, so they are very important. (V)