Aug.02

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Another Look: Is There Any Method to Trump's Wild Statements?

Yesterday, we had an item about Donald Trump's interview at the National Association of Black Journalists, writing: "It did not go well" and "This whole thing was an unforced error that is going to cost Trump Black votes."

We got some pushback on that from readers. For example, J.W. in Seattle, WA, wrote: "He is not trying to win Black votes. His 'performance' was for his base, who will enjoy him disrespecting Black folks." M.M. in San Diego, CA, agreed: "Trump's real audience at the National Association of Black Journalists' convention was his base, especially the racist segment, i.e., the deplorables. He was showing them how brave he was going straight into the big, scary Black lions' den, standing up to them, unafraid of insulting them to their faces, and telling them exactly how he feels about Black people. Such a courageous hero, putting all those Black DEI 'journalists' in their place!" There were also some opinion pieces yesterday making more-or-less this same argument, such as this one from The Bulwark, this one from The New Yorker and this one from TPM.

We have spent another 24 hours thinking about it, and... we just aren't buying that this was kabuki theater for racists. Here are our reasons:

• A Man with a Plan: According to numerous Trump campaign insiders, the former president went into that appearance with a plan. Having had impressed upon him that playing the "race card" was a bad idea, Trump was supposed to talk about Harris as a "radical" and "liberal prosecutor" who has failed the nation when it comes to immigration. Needless to say, he did not stick with that battle plan.
  
  
• Cut it Short: Trump was supposed to be on stage for an hour. His people pulled the plug at 35 minutes. If things are going well, and according to plan, then why bail out 25 minutes early? Why not remain on stage for the full time?
  
  
• Damage Control: Yesterday, the usual Black surrogates for Trump, including Fox entertainer Harris Faulkner (who was co-moderator of the interview), as well as Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) and the Trump campaign's director of Black media, Janiyah Thomas, were all over the place, doing damage control. Their message, in brief: "I know you think you understand what you thought that Trump said but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what Trump meant."
  
  
• The Right-Wing Media Response: Right-wing media types, who would generally be expected to be friendly to Trump, lamented the interview. For example, Bill O'Reilly said: "Donald Trump blew it, and the happiest person in the country tonight is Kamala Harris. She's sitting there cackling, saying, look at this, look at Trump, he's just alienated millions of Black voters..."
  
  
• Ego: Trump loves, loves, loves to be cheered, and he hates, hates, hates to be booed. Outside of a pro wrestling script, we don't think his ego would allow him to walk on stage and knowingly play heel for 30 or 40 minutes.
  
  
• They Already Know: The racists in Trump's base already know he's with them. They do not require a reminder.
  
  
• He Needs Black Voters: If you believe this year's polling is accurate (and note that we're not sold), Trump is offsetting losses among moderates and older voters with gains among Black and Latino voters. He knows that he really needs those Black and Latino votes, assuming they really are there, and it makes no sense for him to put them at risk.

Our assessment of what happened is this: Trump knows he needs Black votes, and he also knows that he's less likely to get them up against a Black woman than a white man. And so, he's decided that his best hope is to convince Black Americans that she's not really one of them. The problem here is that this is a pretty offensive judgment for a white guy to make, particularly in front of an audience of Black people. And when it started to go poorly, Trump reverted to "defense" mode, and started lashing out. It does not help that he has, by all indications, lost some of his mental agility, and so is not in a great position to choose his words well.

Even after reading all this, readers might reach their own conclusions, and decide that J.W. and M.M. and all the op-ed writers have the right of it. Fair enough. But keep one other thing in mind: In 2020 (a little) and in 2016 (a lot), everyone (including us) kept falling victim to the notion that Trump was playing 3-D chess, and that there was some deep, strategic plan to the crazy things he said and did. It turns out there was no 3-D chess in 2016, or in 2020, and we don't know why anything would be different now. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, and sometimes an unhinged racist is just an unhinged racist. (Z)