Aug.02

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Free at Last: Biden Administration Executes Giant Prisoner Exchange

This certainly came out of left field. Yesterday, it was announced that the Biden administration, working in concert with the governments of Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Norway and Turkey, had secured the release of 16 people from Russian prisons.

The headliners here, at least in the U.S., are American journalist Evan Gershkovich and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan. Gershkovich, who is well endowed in the spinal department, was required (as all the prisoners were) to write a personal letter asking Vladimir Putin for clemency. In it, the journalist suggested that he and the Russian president sit down for an interview before Gershkovich leaves the country.

Also released were a pair of journalists of Russian heritage who had established residency in the United States, five German citizens, and seven Russian dissidents. In exchange, the U.S., Germany, and the other nations released and returned eight Russians who were murderers, spies, or murderous spies. The most notorious is Vadim Krasikov, who killed former Chechen fighter Zelimkhan "Tornike" Khangoshvili in broad daylight in a Berlin café, and was convicted of first-degree murder in a German court.

By all indications, the 16 people freed by the Russians yesterday weren't criminal, and were put in prison for political purposes. Meanwhile, the 8 Russians who were freed were legitimately convicted. As is the case under these circumstances, there was some hand-wringing about letting the bad guys go, thus meaning they largely got away with their crimes. Our view, such as it is, is that a 2-to-1 swap that frees 16 innocents is a worthwhile deal. Clearly, Putin wanted these particular bad guys back in the fold. But if he hadn't been able to get them, he has an endless supply of alternative potential bad guys. So, it's not like the world really became a less safe place yesterday.

Not surprisingly, the loudest complaints yesterday came from Donald Trump. He hopped on his rapidly sinking (see below) social media platform to share his views:

So when are they going to release the details of the prisoner swap with Russia? How many people do we get versus them? Are we also paying them cash? Are they giving us cash (Please withdraw that question, because I'm sure the answer is NO)? Are we releasing murderers, killers, or thugs? Just curious because we never make good deals, at anything, but especially hostage swaps. Our "negotiators" are always an embarrassment to us! I got back many hostages, and gave the opposing Country NOTHING - and never any cash. To do so is bad precedent for the future. That's the way it should be, or this situation will get worse and worse. They are extorting the United States of America. They're calling the trade "complex" - That's so nobody can figure out how bad it is!

Several Trump acolytes took it in a different direction, decreeing that the prisoner exchange was actually a victory for Trump. For example, J.D. Vance said: "But we have to ask ourselves, why are they coming home. And I think it's because bad guys all over the world recognize Donald Trump's about to be back in office, so they're cleaning house. That's a good thing. And I think it's a testament to Donald Trump's strength." To take another example, Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), who maybe hasn't figured out yet that he's not the VP pick (or who thinks he might still be the VP pick, given Vance's troubles), said: "[T]he reason why Russia wanted to do this deal now is they think that President Trump's going to win and they don't want to deal with him."

It is not too surprising that Team Trump is responding as they are. From where we sit, there are two, and maybe three lessons that emerge from the hostage swap, and none of them are good for Trump:

1. A Repudiation of Trumpian Diplomacy: We don't know if "Trumpian" is a word, as yet, but we're going with it. Looking first at specifics, one of Trump's campaign promises has been that, if elected, he would bring Gershkovich and Whelan home. Maybe so, but as Joe Biden observed in response to a question from a reporter yesterday: "Why didn't he do it when he was president?" It's a fair point; Gershkovich was detained after Trump left office, but Whelan has been in custody since 2018. In any event, one of Trump's favorite campaign planks is busted.
   
   Meanwhile, considering things more broadly, this is also a defeat for Trump's approach to foreign relations. If he achieved anything, in terms of foreign policy, with his alleged skills as a dealmaker, we're struggling to remember what that might be. He withdrew from treaties, he slapped tariffs on China, he moved the U.S. embassy in Israel, and he played patty cake with Kim Jong-Un, but what deals did he make?
   
   
2. An Affirmation of Bidenian Diplomacy: We definitely don't know if Bidenian is a word, but we are once again going with it. Anyhow, at the same time that the exchange is a poke in the eye for the Trumpian approach to diplomacy, it's a huge win for the Bidenian approach. There are three things about this deal that are not at all characteristic of Trump's way of doing things. First, it required a lot of patience. Trump has none. Second, it required that things be kept on the down-low; the deal was actually consummated on July 21, but everyone kept quiet until yesterday. Trump would be shouting from the highest rooftop as soon as a deal was made, even if it risked spoiling the arrangements. Third, and finally, it involved significant international cooperation. Trump is an America First (and America alone) isolationist.
   
   
3. Putin's Thinking: The first two points seem indisputable to us. This third point is the "maybe," although we feel pretty confident about it, too. We haven't the faintest idea what would have happened on the prisoner-exchange front had yesterday's release not happened, and had Trump been reelected in November. It is possible that something would have happened (probably on terms more favorable to Putin). But maybe nothing would have happened. Again, it's not like Trump managed to make any progress on this front when he was in office the first time.
   
   In any case, Putin surely knows that Kamala Harris is as suspicious of him as Biden is. And he also knows that a lame-duck president has more leeway to negotiate politically risky deals than a non lame-duck. So, if the White House is going to remain under Democratic control, Putin's best window of opportunity is right now. Put another way, it sure looks like Putin has examined his crystal ball, and decided that Harris could very well win this thing. If so, then best to negotiate now. Sure, the Russian could hold out for a Trump presidency, and then hope that he might be able to pull Trump's strings successfully. But those are both maybes, and you know what they say about a bird in the hand.

This story probably won't play a big role in the November elections. But it probably won't have zero impact, either. Again, it's a pretty good object lesson in which approach to international diplomacy works, and which does not. (Z)