Aug.02

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Election Results: Rising Star Likely to Fall

We made a couple of election-related mistakes this week. First, we miscalculated the date of the Tennessee primaries; they were yesterday, not today. Second, Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) has said that if Sen. Bernie Sanders' (I-VT) seat were to come open, he (Scott) would appoint a Democrat or an independent to fill it. So, the Senator is in a position to serve until a ripe old age without risk of pulling an RBG.

Given the general redness of Tennessee, there isn't all that much interesting news out of yesterday's primaries. But there's a little:

• U.S. Senate: Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) easily dispatched a challenger, collecting nearly 90% of the vote. And her opponent will be state Rep. Gloria Johnson (D), who got 70.2% of the vote on that side of the primary. If Johnson's name sounds vaguely familiar, it is because she is one of the "Tennessee Three" who was at risk of expulsion from the Tennessee assembly for daring to speak her mind on the floor. In the end, the two-thirds of the Tennessee Three who are non-white were indeed expelled (and promptly reelected to their seats) while Johnson, who is white, was not expelled. Probably just a coincidence, right?
  
  This fiasco gave Johnson some amount of celebrity among Democrats, both in Tennessee and nationwide. And now she's ridden that to a run for the U.S. Senate. She will base her campaign on abortion access, an issue where there is all kinds of daylight between her and Blackburn. However, the last time a Democrat was even close to winning a U.S. Senate race in the Volunteer State was in 2006. The last time a Democrat actually won a U.S. Senate race there was in 1990. It was a fellow named Al Gore, though we'll have to check the spelling on that, because we are not familiar with him. In Blackburn's last election, she leveled the moderate and fairly popular governor of Tennessee, Phil Bredesen, winning by 10 points. So, barring a monumental upset, Johnson's dramatic rise is going to come to an unhappy end in November.
  
  
• TN-05: In the latest round of redistricting, the Republican-controlled legislature of the state aggressively gerrymandered Tennessee's congressional districts, largely by dividing up the Democratic stronghold of Nashville. As a result, there are no competitive House seats in the entire state; the closest to being competitive is the R+9 TN-05.
  
  Consequently, the only House races of interest last night were those where an incumbent faced a serious challenge. One such incumbent was Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN), who is a leading Freedom Caucuser. As you might guess from that description, he is as "show horse" as it gets, spending all of his time on securing headlines and interviews on far-right "news" channels, and none of his time on trivial things like, say, passing actual legislation. He's also had some minor scandals, most obviously lying about his college degree (it was in liberal studies, not international relations, as he claimed). For these reasons, the sane faction of the Tennessee Republican Party thought he might be vulnerable to a challenge, and so recruited and funded Nashville Councilwoman Courtney Johnston (R) to run against Ogles. It did not work; Ogles collected 56.5% of the vote, and will keep his seat.
  
  
• TN-09: The other race involving a "serious" challenge to an incumbent came in Tennessee's only Democratic district, the D+22 TN-09. For some reason, some Tennessee Democrats thought that a centrist challenger might be able to knock off Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN). So, they got a Black, veteran, Christian named Corey Strong to challenge the white, non-veteran, Jewish Cohen. We do not know exactly what the Strong supporters were smoking (probably something strong), but Cohen is a good match for his district, and has won election there nine times already. He's going to make it 10 in November, as he crushed Strong, taking 73.7% of the vote.

That's it out of Tennessee. Next in line, on Tuesday, are Kansas (House), Michigan (Senate and House) and Missouri and Washington (Senate, House and Governor). (Z)