Dem
51
GOP
49
Kamala Harris raised $250 million in the first week. Together, that is a record haul and will allow her to run a good campaign. But from the point of view of an individual donor thinking of tossing another $50 into the pot, $250,000,000 and $250,000,050 are kinda the same number, more or less.
Two organizations that support the Democrats are trying to guide donors to make donations to Democrats where they will have the most impact. They are Oath and Blue Tent. They look at three factors: (1) competitiveness, (2) high stakes, and (3) financial need. They have analyzed thousands of races from state legislatures on up. If a race is not competitive, either because it is a sure win or a sure loss, why waste money on it? So only competitive races make the finals.
Second, the race has to matter. The Idaho state Senate is 7D, 28R. If one of the Republican seats is very competitive and with some extra cash, the Democrats could change the Senate to 8D, 27R, that race would not be a good investment since it really doesn't matter who wins it, even if the race is very winnable.
Third, if a race is winnable and important, but the candidate already has more money than he or she could possibly spend, then the donor should look elsewhere. Only if a race scores high on all three factors does it get recommended.
On Oath's main page, there is a link to the top six candidates. One is running for the U.S. House (Rudy Salas in California is trying to unseat an incumbent Republican in a D+5 district). One is running for lieutenant governor of North Carolina. The others are running for the state legislatures in Michigan (which the Democrats barely control, so this is a defense play), Arizona (which the Republicans barely control), and Wisconsin. Due to the new map, the entire Wisconsin legislature is up for grabs and this seat meets all the criteria.
Blue Tent works a little differently. You can choose one of 10 candidates for state legislatures, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania (which is also on knife's edge) and a few other states. But you can also donate to groups that support various causes and let them choose the races. The causes include climate change, criminal justice reform, grassroots organizing, gun violence, housing, progressive media, racial justice, regulating Wall Street, reproductive rights, the courts, voting rights, and workers' rights. That way, you pick a cause you care about and they find the candidates who can best help that cause.
Finally, Blue Tent has selected groups to donate to, including those focusing on AAPI voters, Black voters, Latinos, white women, young voters, grassroots organizing, and a number of others. So with Blue Tent, you can choose a candidate, a cause, or a group you like and get the biggest bang for the buck.
If anyone knows of analogous groups for Republicans, please let us know and we will write them up, too. Note that WinRed is like ActBlue, a clearinghouse for funneling money. It doesn't suggest giving it to this representative or that state senator, so please don't suggest WinRed. (V)