Dem
51
GOP
49
Supporters of abortion access are trying to get initiatives that would enshrine the right to an abortion in the state Constitution on the ballot in a dozen states. Abortion opponents are scared to death of this being put to a vote because everywhere it has come to a vote before, it has passed, even in the red and purple states of Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio, and Michigan. So the anti-choice folks' strategy is increasingly doing whatever it takes to prevent the initiatives from making the ballot in the first place. This includes challenging signatures, getting friendly attorneys general to declare something is legally wrong with the measures, and getting the courts involved to kill the measures. It's all-out war.
In the key swing state of Arizona, for example, Arizona Right to Life sued last week to disqualify the measure, saying that signatures were forged, people were tricked into signing, and forms were incomplete. The group Arizona for Abortion Access said that all these claims were false. Now the courts will have to decide. Arizona Right to Life didn't ask the state AG to declare the measure invalid because Arizona AG Kris Mayes is a Democrat and would not have cooperated.
Lawsuits go both ways. A Republican-dominated panel of state lawmakers tasked with writing a ballot summary decided to describe the measure saying that it would allow the abortion of an "unborn human being." The measure's organizers want to change that to "fetus." A member of the panel fought back and said that "fetus" is a medical term and that real people use "unborn human being." A lower court ruled in favor of Abortion Access but the case will go to the state Supreme Court.
In Montana, where a Senate race could determine control of the Senate, abortion opponents have sued to disallow the signatures of registered voters who haven't voted recently. State law requires a certain number of registered voters to sign ballot petitions, but says nothing about how often they have to vote to qualify to sign petitions. But opponents think it is worth a shot because 20% of the signatories have not voted since the deadline the opponents invented.
Why are they doing this? Toni Webb, of the ACLU, said: "It is an unfortunate distraction. Campaigns are now having to pay for lawyers and deal with litigation." Of course, every penny they spend on lawyers is a penny they can't spend on advertising or get-out-the-vote campaigns. That's probably not an accident.
In Arkansas, Republican officials had stopped counting signatures due to a minor error on the cover sheet. A court recently ordered them to continue counting.
In Florida, a pro-choice measure qualified in April after the organizers gathered over a million signatures and beat back an attempt by the state AG to kill the measure. Now Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has said that there has to be a financial impact statement to go with the measure. There is a battle over that, naturally. DeSantis wants it to say that allowing abortion will mean fewer live births, thus fewer future taxpayers and fewer future revenues for the state. Of course, he doesn't mention that fewer people also mean fewer schools, fewer prisons, fewer people on welfare, and lower expenses for the state. What he cares about is growing the state so it gets more House seats and electoral votes in 2030. There are battles in other states as well.
All of this is putting Donald Trump in a bind. He said that abortion should be up to the states. OK, so the battles are now going on in the states. What's his position? Especially on the abortion measure that will be on the Florida ballot in November and on which he will get a vote.
The effect of an initiative on elections is not clear. In many states, large numbers of Republicans voted for the abortion measures in the past. Getting them to the polls does not guarantee that they will all vote for Democrats, but probably a majority of abortion supporters are Democrats. (V)