Dem
51
GOP
49
With the House now back in session, it's put-up-or-shut-up time for Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA). She introduced a motion to vacate the chair before the House went off on spring break, but she didn't make it a privileged motion, so it doesn't have to be acted on now. If she makes it a privileged motion, the House has to vote on it within 2 days. What will she do? Just threaten Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), or finally pull the trigger?
So far Greene and the Freedom Caucus have taken a hard-line stand on everything—and gotten basically nothing. Not on the budget, not on immigration, not on funding for Ukraine. Every time they have threatened to gum up the works, Johnson has made a deal with the Democrats and gotten the votes he needed. This has infuriated Greene and the FC. She has undoubtedly had enough of his dealing with the devil, but the big question is whether MTG has the votes for the MTV.
Some House Republicans think that yet another speaker crisis—the third one this session of Congress—will mostly demonstrate to the country that Republicans can't govern. Others are willing to compromise to get some of their goals. Remember, the first Ukraine bill had a lot of money for border security and Trump ordered Republicans to kill it, which they did. In the end, Ukraine got the money and the Republicans got nothing. Basically, a total win for the Democrats. Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT), among others, is now arguing that getting some of their goals is better than getting none of their goals, but that viewpoint is extremely controversial among conservatives. Many other Republicans think that taking a hard-line stand and never giving in is what it will take to keep their majority.
Johnson is caught in the middle of this. There is simply no way to please Greene and keep the lights on. Any bill written by the Freedom Caucus, even if it passed the House, would die within a microsecond of hitting the Senate. But many members of the FC would be happy with that. They don't see their job as getting bills enacted into law. They see their job as getting on television as much as possible and raising as much money as possible. What's a speaker to do?
And what's Greene going to do? If she fails to pull the trigger and force a vote, she will become neutered. Nobody will take her threats seriously any more. But if she does force an MTV and it fails, she will become a paper tiger. Only if it passes will she retain her power to scare speakers. But given the reluctance of some Republicans to go through a third speak-a-thon this session, she is in a tough spot.
Another factor weighing against an MTV is that there is no speaker-in-waiting who could get the entire Republican conference behind him. Creating a vacancy isn't worth much if you can't fill it. The ball is in MTG's court now. (V)