Dem
51
GOP
49
A new SSRS poll for CNN has a lot of bad news for Joe Biden and good news for Donald Trump. The top line is Trump is ahead nationally 49% to 43%, but that is not the worst of it for Biden. Now, 55% of Americans see Trump's term as a success and 44% see it as a failure. For Biden so far, only 39% see it as a success and 61% see it as a failure. Republicans are more united than Democrats, with 92% of Republicans approving of Trump's term vs. 73% of Democrats who see Biden's term as a success. In addition, 14% say both were failures and 8% say both were successes. Historically, presidents rise in the polls as people forget what it was actually like when they were in the White House.
Biden has two big problems: the economy and the Middle East. Biden's approval on the economy is 34%, despite unemployment being historically low, inflation being largely tamed, and everyone's 401(k) account doing great. It is true that prices are higher than 4 years ago, but for many people, wages have at least kept up, if not more. Still, higher prices stick out like a sore thumb (particularly, of course, for those whose wages have NOT kept up). For people who are employed, the unemployment rate is fairly irrelevant and for people without a 401(k), the stock market is irrelevant. But prices are relevant for everyone. That's the way it goes. The president can't really do much to affect the economy, but the voters don't know that.
Biden's other problem is the Middle East. Only 28% approve of his handling of it and 71% disapprove. Among voters under 35, his disapproval rate is 81%. Normally, foreign policy doesn't have much impact on elections unless Americans are being killed overseas in a war, but this year could be one of those rare exceptions. If Biden were to abandon Israel, then a different group of people would be very unhappy. One of the rules about the Middle East is that everyone loses all the time.
The poll also showed a huge divide among the voters. Among Trump voters, 66% cannot understand why anyone would ever vote for Biden. After all, they heard on Fox that he is the devil incarnate. Among Biden voters, 63% cannot understand why anyone would ever vote for Trump. They heard somewhere that he was impeached twice, indicted four times and is on trial in New York. (V)