Dem
51
GOP
49
The far-right/Trump-kowtowing faction of the Republican Conference in Congress—including the Freedom Caucus, of course, but also people like Sens. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Ted Cruz (R-TX)—is hopping mad. After all, they did not want to send money to Ukraine, and yet Ukraine is getting a bunch of money. And so, having lost that battle, they are vowing not to lose the next one, decreeing that the Ukraine money spigot is now closed.
This is an... interesting threat. The votes in both the House and the Senate were lopsided, speaking to the broad support that Ukraine has among members of both parties. It's hard to see how the anti-Ukraine members can double the size of their ranks. And, more broadly, have you noticed how very bad these people are at politics? They've lost on the debt ceiling, on the budget, on Ukraine, and on pretty much every issue where they drew a line in the sand. And, in the process of losing, they managed to extract... nothing. No meaningful funding cuts, no tax cuts, no new border funding. It's not easy to give the other side what they want, while getting nothing you want, but the FCers and their ilk have managed to do it. So, we are somewhat unimpressed by their posturing right now.
No, there is only one plausible way that Ukraine gets cut off, and that is if friend-of-Russia Donald Trump is in office the next time Ukraine needs funding. He presumably would not sign a bill providing for additional funding, and there may not be votes to override a veto (based on the votes this week, it would be close). That means that the Biden-Trump presidential tilt, in addition to all the other things it represents, is likely to be a choice between "save Ukraine" versus "let Russia take 'em over." As far as foreign policy issues go, the Israel situation is clearly more salient right now. But if there are breakthroughs in the Middle East, then Ukraine could take on substantial significance by September or so. (Z)