Dem
51
GOP
49
Normally, we would not have a separate item for a single national poll, but The New York Times filled the entire top of its Website with it Saturday, so OK, this time. Here is a screenshot:
The Siena College poll has Donald Trump at 46% and Joe Biden at 45%. The real news is that Biden is showing momentum. Since March 25, Biden has led in five national polls and Trump has led in five polls. Real Clear Politics has Trump ahead by 0.2 points. That is a much smaller lead than earlier this year. In February, Trump was leading Biden by 5 points. That's almost gone now. But it's the direction that matters. Biden is definitely gaining on Trump. That's the news story. And this is before the trial starts (see above).
Biden's improved standing is largely due to Democrats who have finally come to realize that their pipe dream of a new candidate riding in on a white horse and rescuing the Party is not going to happen. Biden is going to be the nominee and they prefer him to Trump, even with all his problems. Biden now has the support of 89% of the people who voted for him in 2020 (vs. 94% of 2020 Trump voters supporting Trump again).
One huge problem for Biden is that nearly 80% of the voters see the economy as fair to poor, even though by most objective measurements it is doing just fine. The economy is just one of the reasons that 64% see the country as moving in the wrong direction. But that number never gets below 50% because all the people who didn't vote for the president always see it moving in the wrong direction. Throw in some people who did vote for the president but don't like his policies, and the "wrong direction" generally gets at least 60% of the vote.
The poll shows a small increase in support for Biden among Black and Latino voters, suburbanites, and women. Younger voters are still a problem area, though. Only 4% approve of how he is handling international affairs.
If you want to see how the electoral votes are evolving over time, we have a nice graph for you. Also for all previous elections back to 2004. You can get to it any day by clicking on "Electoral-vote graphs" on the menu to the left of the map. It is worth noting that the second graph is probably more relevant than the top one since states where one of the candidates is ahead by a point or two really shouldn't be counted in the candidate's favor. What is more important is which one has a substantial lead in enough states to get to 270 EVs. (V)