Dem
51
GOP
49
Life just isn't getting easier for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). He's already got a motion to vacate hanging over his head, and earlier this week, 19 of the troublemakers in his conference tanked a procedural vote on one of the two FISA bills that is up for (potential) renewal. Normally, these sorts of procedural votes are pro forma, and break along party lines, meaning the majority is always able to proceed with whatever business it wants to proceed with. Not with this majority, however.
Many members of the House Republican Conference were left sputtering at the latest act of intransigence from their (mostly) Freedom Caucus colleagues. "We don't truly have a majority at this point. You have a loosely aligned coalition government right now, and it's an incredible challenge," said Rep. Garrett Graves (R-LA). "This is incredibly reckless," said Rep. Max Miller (R-OH). "It's an impossible job. The Lord Jesus Himself could not manage this conference," said Rep. Troy Nehls (R-TX).
What's going to happen next? Well, Johnson is going to
try again
to get the bill through Congress. This will not be an easy feat, however. While Johnson spent much time on Thursday
trying to whip the rebels' votes, they got their marching orders directly from the Lord Jesus Himself...
er, we mean, from Donald Trump.
Johnson has already been advised that the Democrats aren't going to help him, and so today he will make the pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago to prostrate himself before Trump. After they have a meeting, the two men will hold a joint press conference, at which they will address "election security."
What this means is that Johnson's best chance of passing the FISA bill is to say what Trump wants to hear about "stop the steal" and how the election of 2020 was fraudulent. Johnson knows full well it wasn't stolen, and that constantly harping about it 3 years later is not helping the GOP's political prospects. But he also knows that if he doesn't perform like a barking seal, he won't be able to get much done in Washington. We'll see how the Speaker threads this particular needle.
There is one other possibility, though. Trump is reportedly not too happy about the motion to vacate, which he thinks is counterproductive. On top of that—and you can't make this stuff up—it appears that the former president actually tanked the wrong bill. The reason he wanted the bill killed, per his messages on his plummeting-share-price social media platform ($32.41 close yesterday), is that he thinks it was weaponized against him. But the matter the House was considering this week was FISA Section 702, which governs surveillance of foreign individuals. Even if you believe Trump was targeted, it would have been under the auspices of FISA Title 1, which is the NEXT bill the House will tee up. So, maybe Trump backs down here, and waits until the next round to flex his muscles.
And finally, let's point out again that Johnson is reportedly tired of all the hassles involved with his current post, and that he's getting close to the end of his rope. If so, it's not impossible that this situation is the final straw that causes him to chuck it all. By nearly all accounts, he's just hanging on for the good of the GOP, so they don't have to have another contentious election for speaker. But if the Party keeps sticking knives in his back, maybe he won't feel so much need to take one for the team. (Z)