Apr.11

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Things Are Looking Better for Biden and the Democrats

Joe Biden has had some bad news of late. Republicans have continued to block funding for Ukraine. Protests against his Middle East policies continue. Donald Trump made a few billion dollars (on paper, although the DJT stock keeps slipping, down from a high of $66.22 to $34.41 yesterday) and he hasn't been held accountable for any of his crimes. Finally, Trump still leads in some of the swing states.

Nevertheless, Biden has also gotten some good news, too. For example:

• No Labels failed: It has been widely assumed that the No Labels ticket was an attempt by Republican billionaires to create an option for Democrats who are not sold on Biden to vote for a Republican plant. The group raised $70 million for this purpose. But in the end, it couldn't find a candidate and gave up. There is still the RFK Jr. threat, but his long history of being an anti-vaxxer and his running mate's comments that IVF dupes women could take down that ticket as well, later on.
  
  
• Pence snubs Trump: It is "unpresidented" for a former veep to diss his former boss, but this is what Mike Pence has done. He knows everything and said "no way." He is not afraid of Trump and probably has no future in Republican politics until such time that Trumpism is stamped out, in which case he could say: "I told you so." If Pence continues to seek publicity to say that Trump is unfit to be president, that could affect some evangelical voters who like him.
  
  
• Biden got moving: Biden's State of the Union speech showed real mojo and demonstrated to anyone who watched that he is not a feeble old man. He also raised $25 million in one day with the three-presidents event at Radio City Music Hall. Also, in the seven national nonpartisan polls April 1-10, Biden leads in four of them, a huge improvement since March.
  
  
• Trump's first trial: As discussed above, it seems increasingly likely that Trump will go on trial Monday. Being on trial for a crime is not likely to help his campaign. Dyed-in-the-wool Trumpists will say it is a witch hunt, but it is hard to see how going on trial wins over moderate Republicans, while it certainly could lose some of them.
  
  
• The Senate: The Senate map is so good for the Republicans that they can already taste victory, but the polls don't show any of the endangered Democratic senators running for reelection as losing. As is often the case, Republicans have found rich businessmen (often from out-of-state) to contest Senate seats, and the voters don't seem to be buying it. In some cases, the popular Democratic senators may even have coattails that help Biden.
  
  
• The Alabama special election: In a special election for a seat in the Alabama House, Democrat Marilyn Lands ran entirely on IVF. She won, in deep red Alabama, by 26 points. This suggests that abortion, IVF, and reproductive health issues are going to give Biden and Democrats generally a huge boost.
  
  
• John Eastman: John Eastman, one of the lawyers close to Trump who tried to steal the 2020 election, is about to be disbarred. Jeffrey Clark could be next. The attempt to steal the election is beginning to have visible consequences and may continue to in the coming months.
  
  
• Kari Lake got busted: Pretend-governor of Arizona Kari Lake was sued by Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer for her lying about him. She realized that she had no chance at trial and didn't even bother to defend herself. She is likely to be hit with a whopping judgment. She is a super Trumper and having someone like that being hit by a massive penalty for pushing Trump's lies can't help Trump's campaign. Especially when Trump himself has also taken a huge financial hit for telling lies.
  
  
• Arizona Supreme Court decision: Probably the best news of all for Biden of late is the decision by the Arizona Supreme Court to de facto ban abortion in the state. This is going to goose turnout enormously in this key swing state by getting young voters who otherwise don't like Biden much to the polls to vote on an initiative enshrining abortion in the state Constitution. While there, most of them will probably vote for Biden and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) for the Senate. If the final map looks like the one above plus a blue Arizona, Biden will have 267 EVs and will need only 3 more. If he wins any of Nevada, Wisconsin, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, or Maine in that scenario, he wins reelection. If Arizona goes blue on account of the state Supreme Court decision, and Biden can hold the states he is leading in now, Trump has to win all six of the states just listed. That is a very tall hill to climb, especially since Nevada and Maine are basically blue states.
  

Again, in politics a week is a long time, but some of the early gloom in Camp Biden is beginning to dissipate. (V)