Dem
51
GOP
49
The Senate election in Maryland would have been a snoozer if Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) had decided to run for reelection. But his retirement, plus the fact that former Maryland governor Larry Hogan (R) has jumped in, has possibly made it a competitive race. Two Democrats are battling for the Democratic nomination: Rep. David Trone (D-MD) and Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. Which one wins could determine the outcome of the Senate race.
Trone, who is white, owns Total Wine & More, the largest privately owned beer, wine, and spirits retailer in the U.S. He is extremely wealthy and could make up for not being as well known as Hogan by carpet-bombing the state with ads introducing himself and attacking Hogan. Alsobrooks is Black and could turn out large numbers of Black voters, who make up 31% of the state's population, the fourth-largest percentage of any state in the country and the highest one outside the Deep South. The two of them obviously bring different advantages to the race.
Now we have a Goucher College poll of the primary. It has Trone at 42% and Alsobrooks at 33%. The primary is on May 14.
The poll also asked about the general election. In a Trone-Hogan race, Hogan is ahead 43% to 42%. In an Alsobrooks-Hogan race, Hogan is ahead 44% to 40%. But note that Alsobrooks' strength (that she is Black) is already well known, but Trone's advantage (that he can bury Hogan in negative ads), hasn't been deployed yet, so he has plenty of room to grow. Democrats were not counting on a competitive race in such a blue state, but Hogan has suddenly created one. (V)