For decades, presidential candidates voluntarily released multiple years' worth of their tax returns. Donald Trump broke the string and it took the courts to pry them away from his stubby little hands. But they are out now and the analyses are starting to roll in. The returns are extremely complex, so new aspects may come to light over the course of the next few days and even weeks, as forensic accountants put on their green eyeshades and start studying them. If you are a forensic accountant, here are the raw returns for 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020.
Here the amounts of adjusted gross income and the net tax for each of the 6 years for which returns were released.
Year | Adjusted gross income | Net tax |
2015 | -$31,756,435 | $641,931 |
2016 | -$32,409,674 | $750 |
2017 | -$12,916,948 | $750 |
2018 | $24,339,696 | $999,466 |
2019 | $4,380,714 | $133,445 |
2020 | -$4,795,757 | $0 |
As you can imagine, preparing tax returns that include over 400 entities that Trump owns was not easy. In 2015, Trump paid Mazars LLP $573,581 for tax prep. In 2016, he paid $1,295,385. The 2017 tax law eliminated the deduction for tax preparation, so Trump didn't list it as a deduction in subsequent years.
Here are some of the more noteworthy items on the tax returns that have come out so far:
No doubt more revelations will be unveiled later this week. (V)
The election for speaker of the House of Representatives is tomorrow and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who has dreamed of the job his whole life, still does not have it locked down. It's that pesky Freedom Caucus that is giving him nightmares. If the FC wanted movement on some straightforward policy issue, say, on taxes or on impeaching DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, McCarthy would just cave and give the members whatever they want. His problem is that what they want is to permanently install the sword of Damocles over his head, held by a single horse hair, and with FC Chairman Andy Biggs (R-AZ) standing next to it holding a pair of scissors. In House-speak, what they want is to allow any member of the House to be able to make a motion to vacate the chair (i.e., fire McCarthy) at any time and force a vote on it. That would keep McCarthy under pressure his entire term and force him to give in to the FC again and again. Not surprisingly, he is not keen on this. Members of the Republican caucus who are not in the FC see this as creating a hostage situation and are also strongly against it. But if even five members of the FC vote for Biggs or someone other than McCarthy and keep doing that, he won't become speaker.
Currently somewhere between five and fourteen members of the FC are on record as "Never Kevin," to varying degrees of seriousness, and there is not a lot of time left for making a deal. To be specific, nine far-right members of the Republican conference released a letter yesterday that describes McCarthy's concessions as "insufficient," and decrees:
The times call for radical departure from the status quo—not a continuation of past and ongoing Republican failures. For someone with a 14-year presence in senior House Republican leadership, Mr. McCarthy bears squarely the burden to correct the dysfunction he now explicitly admits across that long tenure.
The letter is signed by Scott Perry (PA) and Chip Roy (TX), who apparently took the lead, along with Dan Bishop (NC), Andrew Clyde (GA), Paul Gosar (AZ) and Andy Harris (MD), and Reps.-elect Anna Paulina Luna (FL), Eli Crane (AZ) and Andy Ogles (TN). None of those nine are in the group of five led by Matt Gaetz (FL), who have all vowed that they will not vote for McCarthy. That's how we get "between five and fourteen members."
Some members (not the right-wingers) are proposing a compromise in which it would take five members to force a vote on vacating the chair, but that would just mean the hair from which Damocles' sword would hang would just be a little thicker. Many members want it to be as thin as Donald Trump's skin, while most don't want there to be a sword at all. So, the compromise doesn't have many takers.
One development that occurred late last week is that the 70-member Main Street Caucus voted to keep supporting McCarthy until the cows come home. A group of more than a dozen representatives from crossover districts that Joe Biden won also voted for "only Kevin, and said it would not support a compromise candidate." If the five to fourteen FC-ers also refuse to budge, electing a speaker could take a while.
If McCarthy does not make it on the first ballot, it will be the first time since 1923 when the election has gone to a second ballot. Nobody really has an official Plan B, but there is talk that if McCarthy simply doesn't have the votes after multiple ballots, one way out might be for most of the Democrats and some of the moderate Republicans to vote for retiring representative Fred Upon of Michigan. The Constitution does not require the speaker to be a sitting member of the House, so Upton's election would be a first. At this point this seems unlikely, but if McCarthy doesn't have the votes and can't get them, the unlikely may become likely. (V)
Five Republicans are leaving the Senate: Roy Blunt (MO), Richard Burr (NC), Rob Portman (OH), Richard Shelby (AL), and Pat Toomey (PA). None of them are firebrands. In fact, all of them are low-key dealmakers. There are still a few Republican senators willing to make deals with the Democrats, including Sens. Susan Collins (ME) and Lisa Murkowski (AK). But it will take nine Republican votes to invoke cloture on most bills, so these five votes will be sorely missed.
Burr and Blunt backed several bipartisan bills last year. Portman was the lead Republican on the infrastructure bill that passed. Shelby shepherded the bill to fund the government across the finish line. Toomey has long-supported background checks for gun purchases. They believed that their job was to pass laws, not enrage their constituents.
Blunt will be replaced by Sen.-elect Eric Schmitt (R-MO), who is trumpier than Donald Trump and is unlikely to make any deals with anyone. Burr will be replaced by Trump's handpicked candidate, Sen.-elect Ted Budd (R-NC), one of the few of Trump's choices who won. Portman will be replaced by the fire-breathing Sen.-elect J.D. Vance (R-OH), who is certainly not going to be a dealmaker. Shelby will be replaced by his chief of staff, Sen.-elect Katie Britt (R-AL). She will follow in his footsteps and try to work with the Democrats where possible. As a junior senator she won't be a leader, but she will probably vote for bipartisan bills if Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) asks her to. Toomey will be replaced by a Democrat, John Fetterman (PA), who will do whatever Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) wants him to do.
With the inmates running the asylum at the other end of the Capitol, few laws are likely to be passed, but once in a while there will be a required vote to keep the government's lights on. That will be harder now than it was. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) will miss his former Republican colleagues and said: "I worry about it. When you have a history of working across the aisle, when you lose them it's tough." Blunt said: "The members who are leaving are among the least angry. And many, in many cases, may be the most likely to reach out and figure out how to get something done."
Still, the situation in the Senate is not hopeless. The only member of the Republican leadership who is gone is Blunt. The rest of it remains intact. One new senator who is a blank slate is whoever replaces the retiring Ben Sasse. When Gov.-elect Jim Pillen (R-NE) is sworn in, one of his first acts is expected to be the appointment of the departing Gov. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) to fill Sasse's seat. He's never been in national politics and didn't campaign for the seat so no one really knows how he will behave. (V)
In the new year, most of the political attention will be focused on the 2024 presidential race, which is well underway already. A year from now we may look back and say: "How did anyone think X was viable and completely missed Y?" But this is now and not then. We'll do the Republican field today and the potential Democratic field tomorrow.
Our first thought about the Republican field was: "It's Donald Trump's to lose and if he loses it, then Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) will be the nominee. Will everyone else kindly go home and shut up?" But maybe not so fast. In baseball, it is three strikes and you're out. In politics, sometimes it is one strike and you're out. Remember "macaca"? Or Hillary's e-mail server? Is an e-mail server really that important? Well, if one party makes the whole campaign about it, maybe yes.
DeSantis looks strong now, but what if Migrantgate (Texasgate? Immigrant Mobilier?) takes off? We can easily imagine Trump or Pence or other Republicans repeating over and over: "Please explain why you gave a million dollars of the taxpayers' money to one of your friends to ship migrants from Texas to Massachusetts. What did the Florida taxpayers get for their money? Heaven knows how much of the taxpayers' money you'll waste on PR stunts if you get to the White House. We better not risk it." DeSantis could say: "Well, I owned the libs," but first, that is not cool to say out loud and second, the migrants were welcomed and treated well in Massachusetts. The libs acted like adults and made DeSantis look like an angry toddler. Repeated often enough, that could end up hurting DeSantis. He has an extremely thin skin. He is great at dishing it out but no good at all handling incoming fire. And this is only the first potential problem he may have to deal with.
Taking away the Walt Disney Corporation's special tax status, which resulted in transferring a billion dollars in debt from Disney to the state of Florida could also come back to haunt DeSantis—even if the situation is returned to the status quo ante tantrum, which seems likely. Opponents will ask: "If it was a good idea, why did you reverse it and if it was a bad idea, why did you do it in the first place?" An answer of "I tricked the voters and got reelected" may not cut it.
So it is entirely possible that Trump will soon be in big trouble due to legal issues and DeSantis will be in trouble politically due to Migrantgate, Disneygate, or some other gate not yet opened. Hence it is worth looking at who else is out there. Here's the field is roughly descending order of the likihood of getting the nomination:
That's the field now as Politico sees it, but remember, sometimes candidates pop up out of the blue. Certainly, few people in early 2015 saw Trump as the Republican nominee. Someone from business, entertainment, sports, or something else could jump in and surprise people. President Musk, anyone?
For an alternative viewpoint, The Hill also has a list. From most likely to least likely, the top ten are: DeSantis, Trump, Cruz, Haley, Pompeo, Youngkin, Pence, Scott, Noem, and Sununu. It is noteworthy that DeSantis is #1. We expect more lists in the weeks ahead with DeSantis as #1. In our view, the chances of the nominee being a straight, white conservative Christian male are roughly 99.99%. So scratch Haley, Scott, and Noem, although all three are conceivable as veep. We also think Sununu, who otherwise qualifies, is not nearly conservative enough. Other than that, the list is plausible. The order of Pompeo, Youngkin, and Pence is kind of arbitrary. Each one has different strengths and weaknesses. Notably absent from the list is Brian Kemp. We think that is correct, If he runs for the Senate in 2026 against Jon Ossoff, he probably has a 90% chance of getting the GOP nomination vs. maybe 2% for president in 2024. (V)
Republicans are rarin' to go. Now they have a place and date for their 2024 nominating convention. All that is left is the candidate (see above). The convention will be held Monday July 15, 2024, through Thursday July 18, 2024, at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI. This information is needed for the expected 45,000 folks, including delegates, alternate delegates, Republican politicians, donors, reporters from all over the world, media crews, TV anchors, spinmasters, photographers, bloggers, technical personnel, public safety teams, medical personnel, prostitutes, alternate prostitutes, and more. Protesters are probably not included in the count, but you betcha that more than a couple will show up. They all need to block off these days on their calendars now. Local hotels and restaurants will also be noting that starting July 1, 2024, or thereabouts, it will be time to triple their prices or more.
There isn't a lot of evidence that having a convention in some state wins a lot of votes in that state. Nevertheless, the received wisdom is that it does, and few states swing more than Wisconsin. If Wisconsin voters think that the Republicans love them, it can't hurt. The runner-up was Nashville, in deep red Tennessee. From a political standpoint, that makes little sense. However, the final decision is not entirely based on politics. Logistics are also key, including the number, quality, and location of hotel rooms. Not every city has 45,000 hotel rooms within an hour of the convention venue, for example. Also, the chosen city needs an airport with many scheduled flights from all regions of the country to get those 45,000 people to the venue. And of course, the chosen city has to want (and bid for) the convention. Early on, some possible (even desirable) cities refused to bid because they didn't want the convention.
Milwaukee does have a couple of downsides, though. Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson is Black and a Democrat. Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) is white and also a Democrat. Nevertheless, neither one is going to try to sabotage the convention. If the logistics come off smoothly, other organizations are going to see that Milwaukee can pull off big events and that will increase Milwaukee's future convention business, which the mayor, the governor, and the local business community would very much like.
A side issue here is that the Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature. Both Johnson and Evers know that a smoothly run convention that showcases the Republican ticket well will generate some good will among the legislators. That good will could come in handy after the convention. (V)
The Democrats had hoped to confirm 100 new federal judges in the 117th Congress, but the clock won. They did get 97 judges seated though, more than the 85 Trump got through in his first 2 years. The kind of judges Biden nominated and got confirmed is wildly different from the type Trump nominated, so Biden's impact on the federal judiciary will be greater and longer lasting than Trump's numbers aside. Of the 126 nominees for whom a vote was taken in the Senate Judiciary Committee, 92 were women and 60 were women of color. In total, 85 were people of color. There were also 8 LGBTQ nominees. This is a huge change from Trump's choices, most of whom were white men.
Another form of diversity is what the judges previously did. Many of Biden's nominees were public defenders, immigration lawyers, or consumer advocates. Trump's were largely prosecutors and corporate lawyers.
What is also amazing is that the Democrats did this with the Judiciary Committee split 11-11 and most Republicans voting against every nominee. For example, Josh Hawley voted for only one of Biden's nominees and Ted Cruz voted for only two. Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse voted for five each. One surprise was Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who supported 107 of them. He said that as long as a president picks qualified nominees, he is entitled to pick people he prefers. The Republican who approved the second largest number of nominees is Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who voted for 50.
Democrats tried to make a deal with the Republicans to get three more of the least contentious nominees through in order to hit the 100 mark, but the Republicans refused. There are almost 30 in the pipeline for the next Senate to consider. However, since the Democrats will have a majority on the Committee starting Jan. 3, they will be able to get judges confirmed much faster than has been he case so far. However, one thing that could slow them down is the contentious "blue slip rule." The Senate has an informal tradition that when a judge is nominated, the senators from the state where the judge will serve get "blue slips" to approve or veto the candidate. The Democrats want to continue this tradition, but if they want to match Trump's 4-year total, that might not be possible.
One metric where Trump scored better than Biden during his first 2 years is that he got 30 appellate judges confirmed. Biden has gotten only 28 so far. On the other hand, Biden got 68 district judges confirmed to Trump's 53. (V)
Mark Meadows was at one time registered to vote in three states (Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina) at the same time. That is not illegal as long as he didn't vote in more than one of them. However, he didn't live at the address he registered in North Carolina, and had apparently never lived there, and that is illegal. Nevertheless, on Friday, North Carolina AG Josh Stein (D) announced his decision not to prosecute Meadows.
Stein decided that there was not enough evidence to go after either Meadows or his wife, who was also registered at an address where she didn't live. Stein was concerned that he couldn't prove his case to a jury beyond a reasonable doubt and so decided not to chance it.
The address where Meadows and his wife registered was a mobile home in Scaly Mountain, NC. At the time he registered, he was White House chief of staff and living in D.C. However, North Carolina state law says that people who are working for the government in D.C. don't actually have to sleep in their North Carolina house all the time, or even 183 days a year to qualify for North Carolina residency. The key legal question is what Meadows' "permanent place of abode" was. That could have been in Scaly Mountain, even if Meadows was never there, because state law recognizes that working for the government is always a temporary gig. So, in the end, Meadows got away with claiming that other people voted fraudulently when he himself never lived at the address he was registered at. (V)
The Washington Post did something that is a little bit interesting. They have two token arch-conservative fire-breathers on their op-ed staff, namely Hugh Hewitt and Marc Thiessen. And the paper assigned the latter to do was write two lists, one of the 10 best things Joe Biden did in 2022 and another of the 10 worst.
Let's start with the worst. Thiessen begins that piece by describing the Biden presidency as "the worst presidency in my lifetime." Thiessen is 55, which means he's rating Biden as worse than, among others, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, George W. Bush and Donald Trump. In other words, if we may be so bold, one cannot take Thiessen all that seriously. Still, the "worst" list does give insight into the top right-wing talking points of 2022 (and, very likely, going forward):
BIDEN'S LOW POINTSSome of these are particularly laughable. For example, number 8. While the various Democratic campaign apparatuses may well have promoted extremists (a.k.a. rat**cking), Biden had nothing to do with that. Or how about number 5? We do not seem to recall any footage of Biden begging any foreign despot to produce more oil. Shaking the hand of MbS is not begging. And, at the same time, how does releasing tens of millions of barrels of oil from the strategic reserve constitute "weakening domestic production"? Still, the point here is not to discover any sort of objective truths, but to understand the right-wing mindset when it comes to Biden and to the 2024 elections.
And now the "best" list. It must have turned Thiessen's stomach to have to write this one. Still, it gives some insight into the things that Biden and Democrats can highlight if they want to try to connect with independents and crossover Republicans:
BIDEN'S HIGH POINTSSo, Biden's worst thing was his handling of Ukraine. And his best thing was... his handling of Ukraine. Thiessen is not known for his consistency, so it's not surprising that the two lists look a little odd when placed next to each other. In any event, the lists give some insight into the thought processes of Trumpy Republicans. (V & Z)
The year 2022 was full of political news. According to NPR, these were the top political stories of the year (not ranked):
Honorable mentions went to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) stepping down and her husband being attacked. Also, Justice Brett Kavanaugh was targeted, which led to increased security for justices. (V)
We were asked, over the weekend, to make available the complete versions of the "I Am the Very Model of a Modern Major-General" parodies. So, we have gone back to that posting and restored the verses we edited out.
Today, to wrap up this year's incarnation of "December to Rhymember," a couple of year-in-review entries. This one is from M.P. in Leasburg, MO, and is inspired, as the author explains, "by both the New Year and Bob Dylan's 'Tangled up in Blue' (Electoral Vote blue, that is!):
Early one morning as the year began anew
I was laying in bed
Wondering if they'd changed at all
If his hair was still orange
The pundits they said our lives together
Sure was gonna be rough
They never did like the red's best guess
Turtle's bankbook wasn't big enough
And we're standing on the side of the road
Stupidity falling round us like a ruse
Feels like we've all seen a ghost
Lord knows we've all paid some dues
Getting through, (if we can just get)
Tangled up in blue.
MTG was married when we all first met
Soon to be divorced
McCarthy helpin' her out of a jam I guess
Our friends need to set a new course
We all voted as hard as we could
The far-right felt they were blessed
Split up on a November night
Independents knew it was for the best
They know that it has to be
Voting that way
We heard then say over our shoulder
"We'll all meet again someday
based on popularity," (if we can just get)
Tangled up in blue
Santos has a job in the great north woods
Working as a politician for a spell
But honest folk didn't like it all that much
And one day the ax just fell
He drifted down to Brazil
So lucky he knows how to kite
Working for a while on a street corner
Right outside of a bank
But all the while he was alone
The past was close behind
He's all about a fraudulent scheme
But he never escaped our mind
And as new voters grew, (if we can just get)
Tangled up in blue
She was working in a lawless place
We just stopped by for a beer
A gun just might get stuck upside our face
Although it could be your atmosphere
And later on when the crowd thinned out
We were just about to do the same
She was standing there in back of my friend's chair
And said, "What do you think about my sidearm?"
Not really here to pursue our death
She had employees packin' throughout the place
We must admit we felt a little uneasy
When she bent down to reload
We just wanted a burger and a brew (Geez, we really have to get)
Tangled up in blue
He appeared from nowhere and offered us a pillow
"I thought you'd never buy it," he said,
"You all see through my tripe."
Then they tried to get us on a bus to Amarillo
And handed us some tickets
Purchased by some aide to DeSatan
Really come on, it's the 21st century
And for everyone, the words rang true
And what was grim is now so clear
Pouring off of every voter registration
Like it was a whole new year
Shake the voodoo and deja-vu (Let's do it and get)
Tangled up in blue
So now we're going back again
We've got to get there somehow
All the people we used to know
They're getting replaced with nut jobs now
Some are drunken mathematicians
Some are other dude's wives
Don't know how it all got started
I don't know what they do with their lives
But we are still on the road
In search of that legal joint
We always did feel the same
It's a new year and a different point of view
(We MUST get)
Tangled up in blue!
To paraphrase the show M*A*S*H: "Aaaaaah, Dylan!"
And bringing up the rear is J.L. in Los Angeles, CA with this year-in-review piece that brings to mind... well, Beowulf:
2002 is now history
Filled with drama and controversy
And political adversity
Lots to see
On E-V
How's your memory?
Starting with January...
Rudy Giuliani
Says "subpoenas aren't for me"
Manchin and Sinema get ornery
GOP blocks Fed nominees
Ukraine invaded by Russian military
Everybody loves V. Zelenskyy
Clarence and Ginni
Scheming activity
Farewell, Jen Psaki
Republican AGs
Sue over border policy
CRT is public enemy
DeSantis takes on Disney
SCOTUS is leaky
Let there be...
Primaries!
Meanwhile, gas is getting costly
Massacre in Uvalde
Is buying guns too damn easy?
Oz will be the PA nominee for the GOP
Even though he's from New Jersey
The 1/6 Committee
Holds hearings about the attack on democracy
With weekly testimony
About conspiracy
Skillfully edited for TV
Herschel Walker's many babies!
The Supreme Court says Roe is history
Abortion is now state policy
Bans pop up across the country
Meanwhile, back in Washington, DC
We hear Cassidy
Reveal Trump's tantrum in the SUV
Steven Breyer, 83
Is replaced by Justice Ketanji
But SCOTUS is still 6-3
Biden meets with head Saudi
Fist pump seen as too friendly
Especially with Golf's new LIV
Steve Bannon found guilty
New York Post: Trump Is Unworthy
U.S. drone strike kills al Qaeda's Al-Zawahiri
Just as Taiwan gets a visit from Nancy
Car crash kills Rep. Jackie Walorski
An ad for Liz from Dick Cheney
She's got a real tough primary
And then the game changed suddenly
As Mar-a-Lago was raided quietly
Oh, did I say "quietly"?
Not with Trump screaming angrily!
He declassified those documents verbally
(And cleared some of them telepathically?)
He really needs to take this seriously
This info could put agents into jeopardy
Meantime, did Trump's attorney
Commit perjury
By saying all the docs were returned completely?
Oh, gee!
The Inflation Reduction Act could make history
Trying to help the economy
With investments into clean energy
To help fight climate change... finally!
In Wyoming's primary
Real bad news for Liz Cheney.
She'll have lots of free time come January.
Speaking of time that's free
A retirement announcement from Anthony Fauci
In Alaska, RCV
Results in a loss for the GOP
DeSantis weaponizes refugees
Is kidnapping still a felony?
A billionaire whose name starts with "E"
Buys Twitter for $44 billion with a "B"
And thus begins the insanity
Herschel Walker's campaign is in flaming debris
And things look just as bad in PA and AZ
A conservative wacko attacks Paul Pelosi
A new king and two new PMs for GB
Now their Prime Minister's name is Rishi
The SCOTUS tells a senator named Lindsey
That he must finally talk to a Georgia grand jury
And then we all vote for an R, I, or D
And a Republican red wave becomes a slim victory
Bad candidate quality
Democratic opportunity
Who will lead the RNC?
And then Trump declares his next candidacy
For the presidency
But first, please buy my cool NFT
A new Special Counsel comes from the AG
To investigate Trump's widespread villainy
The RNC orders an autopsy
And the Dems elect Hakeem Jeffries
To be the leader of the upcoming House minority
Raphael Warnock gets a big victory
(finally!)
Sinema switches to I from a D
But Senate Democrats keep their majority
And mess with the schedule for the next primary
After 10 months, an athlete named Brittney
Is released from a Russian penitentiary
And returned to her family
Marriage is protected for LGBT
From sea to sparkly sea
While McCarthy mates with Marjorie
The Supreme Court of NC
Says no to laws for voter ID
But don't get too happy
'Cause starting next year, the court's majority
Will shift to the GOP
The report from the 1/6 Committee
Points the finger at Trump and his cabal of lackeys
The most corrupt presidency
In history
Will leave a legacy
Of infamy
A surprise visit from Mr. Zelenskyy
Gets Washington photo-ops a'plenty
But shores up support as Ukraine fights off the Russkies.
And lastly
A government shutdown averted narrowly
Passing a $1.7 trillion budget (with a "T")
As the temps drop to 1 degree
(or less!)
Time to get out of DC
Have a Christmas that's merry
And come back when there's a Republican majority
In the House on January 3
To start investigations with wild glee
Assuming there's a speakership for Kevin McCarthy
Get the popcorn and watch the melee
As we enter 2023!
Happy New Year from (V) and (Z)
And also from me!
Hear, Hear!
Thanks to everyone who sent submissions; we got over 700 poems this year. January, of course, is predictions month; we'll get started on that tomorrow. (Z)