Dem
51
GOP
49
Let us begin here by reiterating that it's really, really difficult right now to measure Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s impact on the presidential race, in part because the election is still over a year away, in part because people who say they will vote third party often change their minds at the last minute, and in part, in this particular case, because it's hard to know how many people are actually familiar with RFK Jr.'s ideas, and how many people are just seeing the name "Kennedy" and making their decisions based on that.
With that said, there have now been four polls that compared Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden to Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy, so we might as well do a brief, very preliminary report. Two of the polls were conducted before RFK Jr. officially switched to independent on Oct. 9, though after the writing was on the wall. The third was conducted on both sides of his announcement, while the fourth was done entirely after he jumped ship on the Democratic Party:
| Pollster | Dates | Trump | Biden | Kennedy | Net |
| Ipsos/Reuters | Oct. 3-4 | 35% | 35% | - | EVEN |
| Ipsos/Reuters | Oct. 3-4 | 33% | 31% | 14% | Trump +2% |
| Cygnal | Oct. 3-5 | 45% | 45% | - | EVEN |
| Cygnal | Oct. 3-5 | 40% | 39% | 12% | Trump +1% |
| Beacon/Fox | Oct. 6-9 | 48% | 49% | - | Biden +1% |
| Beacon/Fox | Oct. 6-9 | 41% | 41% | 16% | EVEN |
| Marist | Oct. 11 | 46% | 49% | - | Biden +3% |
| Marist | Oct. 11 | 37% | 44% | 16% | Biden +7% |
So what do we learn here? That's right, not a damn thing. In the first three polls, the presence of Kennedy helps Trump by 2 points, 1 point and 1 point. In the fourth poll, the presence of Kennedy helps Biden by 4 points. Not only are all of those within the margin of error, but they average out to EVEN.
It is improbable that the impact of Kennedy will be clear anytime soon, and it's possible that it will never be (at least, not until the votes are counted). That said, his "independent" candidacy is being funded primarily by right-wing benefactors. If those benefactors conclude that investing in Junior is a crapshoot at best, they might close the checkbooks, and he might struggle to keep things going. Failing that, he'll be an ongoing wildcard. (Z)