Dem
51
GOP
49
It wasn't just presidential candidates who had to have their FEC paperwork in by yesterday, it was also candidates for other federal offices. Like, say, U.S. Senator. And there are a couple of veteran members of the upper chamber who had a less-than-stellar Q3.
One of those veterans is Ted Cruz (see below for the other), who brought in $8.8 million. That's not terrible, necessarily, but his likely opponent—Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX)—brought in $10.9 million, and in a shorter time.
Cruz, of course, is one of the most hated politicians in America. And given that, plus the fact that he was almost knocked off once before, it surely must be the case that Allred is bringing in a lot of money from outside Texas. Of course, people outside Texas can't vote inside Texas, and so one probably shouldn't interpret the fundraising totals as a sign that Cruz is in serious danger.
Looking at it another way, Cruz may be obnoxious and a terrible colleague, but he's still basically a standard-issue conservative Republican. We have a hard time imagining that, with Donald Trump on the ticket, there will be some sizable number of Trump-Allred ticket splitters. After all, Trump is obnoxious and a terrible colleague, too. Looking back at 2020, when there was also a Senate race in Texas, Trump got 52% of the vote and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) got 53% of the vote. That kind of suggests that, to the extent there was ticket-splitting, it was limited, and it was more likely to be Biden-Cornyn voters as opposed to Trump-M.J. Hegar voters.
That said, Trump only won Texas by 5 points in 2020. Let us imagine a world where enthusiasm for Trump is down, either because people are tired of his shtick, or because he's a convicted felon. There's also a parallel world where Trump is forced off the ticket, and Republicans are left with someone like Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) to vote for. An "Ugh, Trump"/Cruz or a DeSantis/Cruz combo might dampen Republican turnout some. Then, if Allred gets people excited, that might get Democratic turnout up some. Add in the demographic changes that are supposedly turning Texas purple, and you can squint and see a world where Texas is close, and maybe Allred pulls it out.
What we are saying here is that we don't see how Allred can win unless Texas is in play. But, it's at least possible that Texas will be in play. Not likely, but possible. And if so, that is going to scare the bejesus out of the GOP pooh-bahs, since they have no way to win presidential elections—either in 2024 or going forward—without the Lone Star State. (Z)