Dem
51
GOP
49
Yesterday, we noted that the Q3 fundraising numbers are rolling in, and that Mike Pence is in big trouble, so much so that he's effectively giving up on Nevada. There's no ROI on a candidate who is not going to win, and Pence clearly isn't, so he will undoubtedly sputter along a bit more, and when the cash runs out and he's not making the debate stages anymore, it will be over.
Yesterday was also the deadline for all candidates to get their financials in to the FEC. Usually, those who are not doing so well wait until the last moment, so that maybe there won't be as much attention paid to how badly they are doing. This is not actually a very effective strategy, as anyone who is in the business of writing about politics (like us) is poring over these documents looking for things to write about.
And so it is that everyone in the country knows that Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) is not doing much better than Pence when it comes to money. The "good news," such as it is, is that the Senator still has $13.3 million on hand, which is more than any Republican not named Donald Trump. However, that figure comes with numerous qualifiers. First, Scott raised $4.6 million in Q3 while spending $12 million. Second, about $3 million of that total can only be spent if he advances to the general election, which isn't going to happen. Third, the biggest "donation" Scott has received has been a transfer of $20 million from his U.S. Senate bank account. If he hadn't made that transfer, his presidential account would be roughly $7 million in the hole.
Not only is this not sustainable long-term, it's not necessarily sustainable through the end of 2023. And yesterday, Scott's affiliated super PAC, Trust In the Mission PAC (or TIM PAC; how clever) announced that it was going to reduce its advertising budget. Before yesterday, TIM PAC had reserved $40 million in advertising slots leading up to the Iowa caucuses. Now, the PAC will spend much less, perhaps as little as $0 million.
After making the announcement, TIM PAC co-chair Tim Collins explained: "We are doing what would be obvious in the business world but will mystify politicos—we aren't going to waste our money when the electorate isn't focused or ready for a Trump alternative." Congrats, Tim (Scott) and Tim (Collins), it took you a mere 6 months to figure out what was obvious to everyone else from the get go. Scott and Collins, who definitely aren't coordinating, because that would be illegal, both said yesterday that knocking on doors and other such activities would continue.
Pence, as we noted yesterday, is in slight danger of missing the third debate, since he doesn't have the correct number of donors. That is something that can be fixed with direct action, however, so the former VP has a better-than-average chance of solving that problem. Scott, for his part, does not have the correct number of donors and he hasn't got the national poll he needs. The Senator needs to pull 4% in at least one RNC-approved national survey, and he might not be able to do it. His best result since the second debate was 3%, and that was in a pair of non-qualifying polls. Among polls that do qualify, his best number is 2%. There's not much a candidate can do to goose national polling numbers.
In short, Pence and Scott are in a race to the bitter end. The former has the polls but not the money and the latter has the money (for now) but not the polls. The only real question is whether one or both of them hangs on until Iowa, in hopes of a miracle. (Z)