Oct.17

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Jordan Is Approaching the Promised Land

There's no way to know until an actual floor vote is held, but Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) is reportedly inching closer to 217 votes and, with them, the position of Speaker of the House.

On Monday, Jordan picked up four Republican votes that were previously "nays": Vern Buchanan (FL), Ken Calvert (CA), Mike Rogers (AL) and Ann Wagner (MO). There are still at least seven holdouts, though most of them are saying things other than "I will never, ever vote for Jim Jordan." For example, Don Bacon (NE) said he is a "no" for now but he's not saying "never, ever," while Ken Buck (CO) said "I am a no... right now."

At this point, allow us to review—once again—half a dozen reasons that making Jordan the speaker is absolutely bonkers:

1. Sexual Assault: Jordan is credibly accused of looking the other way while the wrestlers he coached were victimized by a serial molester. And while he's not likely to face the music in a court of law, much less to be convicted, some of the victims have already spoken up since Jordan became a speaker candidate. Those men are going to be all over the place next year if Jordan is speaker. (Also bonkers: If you hear "Republican speaker" and "wrestling molestation scandal," you only have a 50% chance of guessing correctly which person is being talked about.)
   
   
2. Insurrection: Former representative Liz Cheney says that Jordan was more intimately involved with efforts to overturn the 2020 election than any other member of the House. If anyone would know, she's the one. And if Jordan becomes speaker, every Democrat in the country will spend 2024 pointing out that the Republican Party is anti-democracy. "Look at who they nominated for president," they will say. "And if you doubt it, look who they chose for speaker." In particular, the Biden 18, not to mention the 15 or so Republicans in districts that are purple/light red, are going to be hammered daily with Jordan. Indeed, the Ohioan isn't even speaker yet, and the Democrats are already doing that.
   
   
3. The Anti-LBJ: Lyndon B. Johnson was probably the most skilled consensus-builder that Congress has ever seen. Jordan might be at the extreme other end of that spectrum. He won't even bother to ask Democrats for their votes. And as to Republicans, he's an obnoxious jerk who rubs people the wrong way, not unlike Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). Is there any vote that Jordan could whip that any other speaker could not? Remember how John Boehner described Jordan: "legislative terrorist."
   
   
4. Lunacy: As Speaker, Jordan is likely to do something nutty that will cost the Republicans big-time. Shutting down the government leaps to mind.
   
   
5. Sleight-of-Hand Governance: Even if Jordan doesn't do something outright nutty, he could create problems trying to govern through trickery and deception. For example, his plan for the budget is to pass another continuing resolution to fund the government through April 1. Why April 1? Because, according to the deal that suspended the debt ceiling, there will be a 1% cut in all spending if there's no permanent budget in place. Jordan thinks that the specter of that will give House Republicans leverage. One problem with the plan is that a lot of House Republicans hate it. Another problem is that if Jordan gets his way, because of the way the budget is structured, the biggest cuts will actually end up being in... the Department of Defense. Democrats may well dare Jordan to go for it, while Senate Republicans would scream bloody murder.
   
   
6. Not a Good Show Horse: Let us imagine that members vote for Jordan because they really love someone who engages in lots of shenanigans and political theater. Well, the fact is... Jordan is actually pretty terrible at these things. He's been running a Biden laptop investigation for 10 months, and a Biden impeachment investigation for a month. And what has he come up with that actually stuck and did some damage? Nothing. In fact, his handling of the whole thing has probably set the case(s) against the Bidens back, as opposed to moving them forward. Recall, for example, the public impeachment hearings where two of the three "star" witnesses admitted there wasn't enough evidence to impeach the President.

These are the highlights, but we don't regard this as an exhaustive list by any means.

If the House Republican Conference really does pick Jordan, here are our guesses as to what the members might be thinking:

• Failing to elect a speaker will inflict more damage on the GOP than having a loose cannon as speaker.
  
  
• Working with the Democrats to elect a moderate Republican is worse than having Jordan, because Republican voters would blow a gasket if there was an elephant-donkey partnership.
  
  
• Not voting for Jordan could place the member, or their family, at risk of physical attack from a fanatical Trump/Jordan supporter.
  
  
• The Freedom Caucus needs to be slain, like a dragon, and the only way to do it is to allow them to eat themselves alive.
  
  
• Making Jordan speaker will neuter the FC, since they can hardly claim he's a RINO who must be opposed at all turns.

Presumably today will be revelatory, because if there's a floor vote, we'll see where things stand, while if there isn't a vote, it suggests Jordan is not all that close to 217 after all. (Z)