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Biden Reminds Iran of the Other Half of "Speak Softly"

Joe Biden is not given over to bluster, like some presidents are. However, he has clearly studied his Theodore Roosevelt, and knows that diplomatic talk works best if your adversaries know you have other options, should they become necessary.

At the moment, as the world sorts out exactly what happened in Israel, and which nations might have been behind the attack, Biden has resisted the temptation to excoriate Iran. That might play well on TV, and there might be other 2024 presidential contenders who are unable to resist that temptation, but antagonizing the Iranians needlessly adds further gunpowder to a situation that's already engulfed in flames.

At the same time, there is considerable risk that now that Hamas has lit the fuse, other Middle Eastern nations will seize this opportunity to take a shot at Israel. It has happened before... multiple times. And the likeliest culprits are Iran and Hezbollah (basically the Lebanese equivalent of Hamas). Here's a map of the Middle East:

Lebanon is directly to the north
of Israel, while Iran is northwest, and troops would have to pass through Iraq/Turkey and then Syria

As you can see, if Iran and Hezbollah were to attack or invade Israel, that attack would almost certainly come from the North. Yes, they could try something from the south, via the Red Sea, but that would require naval resources those actors don't really have. Further, the U.S. has a fair bit of firepower stationed in Saudi Arabia, while Egypt is also keeping its eyes and ears open. Though it's not clear who the Egyptians would call if they did see something; would they take all the trouble of dialing the White House, or would they just use speed dial and warn Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ)?

The bottom line is that the northern border of Israel is the potential weak link. And so, as soon as the Hamas attack became known, Biden ordered one of the United States' 11 aircraft carriers—the U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford—to the Eastern Mediterranean. And yesterday, he sent a second carrier, the U.S.S. Dwight D. Eisenhower. That's two big ships named after World War II-veteran presidents for the price of one.

Both aircraft carriers are, of course, part of aircraft carrier groups, which means that the total U.S. presence will total 11 ships (6 in the Eisenhower group; 5 in the Ford group). This is an enormous amount of firepower; there are no countries (other than the U.S.) that have more than two carriers, and there are only five countries (other than the U.S.) that have that many: China, India, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom. The message, not unlike the 6'6", 330-pound bouncer standing with his arms crossed at the door of the bar, is "Just try it." Speak softly and carry a big stick, indeed. (Z)



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