Dem
51
GOP
49
When it's time for a new pope, white smoke from the Sistine Chapel means "done deal," while black smoke means "not yet." If we apply the concept to something more secular, then the House Republican Conference gave us some black smoke yesterday, since there is no new speaker. Big black smoke, in fact, because the red teamers don't appear to be particularly close to seating a replacement for former speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).
The "good news," such as it is, is that the Conference has settled on a nominee for the speakership: Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA). However, it was a two-person election, and he got just 50.7% of the vote. It would be pretty hard for his "victory" over Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) to represent any less of a mandate.
So, can Scalise convert roughly 113 Republican votes into 217 Republican votes? Anything is possible over the course of a few days, we suppose. Or, more probably, weeks. Maybe even months? At the moment, only a few dozen members of the GOP Conference have made public their voting plans, and there are already seven "nays" on Scalise: Lauren Boebert (R-CO), Bob Good (R-VA), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), Nancy Mace (R-SC), Max Miller (R-OH), Lloyd Smucker (R-PA) and Carlos Gimenez (R-FL). Seven defections is considerably more than the four Scalise can afford if he is to become speaker.
At this point, it's not even clear if there will be a chamber-wide vote on Scalise today... or this week. Some members of the Conference are pushing for one, in hopes of creating "momentum" for the Louisianan. Others don't want to be publicly embarrassed again, as they were in January. Presumably, the final decision is in the hands of Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-NC).
Unless we are missing something, there would appear to be only three paths forward:
We list those in order from most likely to least likely but, at the moment, it's hard to see how any of them leads to the necessary result.
The only real certainty that emerges from yesterday's events is this: Donald Trump got poked in the eye. He threw his support wholeheartedly behind Jordan and, once again, his endorsement didn't matter. Clearly, a sizable chunk of the House Republican Conference isn't willing to challenge Trump directly, but also doesn't have much interest in following his orders.
One last thought that didn't really fit in with the flow above: Considering the track record of Jim Jordan, it is absolutely insane that nearly half of the Republicans in the House want to make him one of the two or three faces of the Party, not to mention the person third in line for the presidency. This is not like Trump, where the Republicans were basically stuck with him. 49.3% of them are choosing to cast their lot with Jordan. We say again: This is not a healthy, normally functioning political faction. Though you didn't need us to tell you that. (Z)