Dem
51
GOP
49
This seems like at least the fourth or fifth time that Kari Lake (R) has made it official that she's running for the U.S. Senate seat currently occupied by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ). But yesterday was her official campaign launch, so we guess it's maga-MAGA-super-total-scrumdiddlyumptious-official now. (Hm. For some reason, our spell-checker does not have scrumdiddlyumptious in it.)
We don't have anything terribly useful to say about Lake's candidacy that we haven't already said. She's going to run in the Trump lane, and will dispatch her main challenger, Sheriff Mark Lamb. Then she will hope and pray, either to the version of Jesus who lives in heaven, or the version who lives in Florida, that she can attract just enough votes in the general election to eke out a victory. It didn't work for her last time, when she "won" the governor's race, it didn't work for MAGA Republicans in the last two Senate races, it didn't work for Donald Trump in 2020, and Arizona is trending blue. But hope springs eternal, we suppose.
Since we don't have much to say about this race, let's review the (relatively small number of) polls of the race that have been taken in the last six months:
| Pollster | Dates | Gallego | Lake | Sinema | Net |
| National Research | Oct. 7-9 | 33% | 37% | 29% | Lake +4% |
| Public Policy Polling | Oct. 6-7 | 41% | 31% | 17% | Gallego +10% |
| Emerson | Aug. 2-5 | 36% | 29% | 21% | Gallego +7% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Jul. 13-17 | 34% | 25% | 26% | Gallego +8% |
| Public Policy Polling | Apr. 18-19 | 42% | 35% | 14% | Gallego +7% |
| Average | 37.2% | 31.4% | 21.4% | Gallego +5.8% |
Not too much polling, but what there is generally indicates that Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) is the frontrunner. He probably also has some room to grow his support, since he's got the least name recognition of the trio statewide. (Z)