Dem
51
GOP
49
Former baseball player Steve Garvey has been teasing a run for the open U.S. Senate seat in California, and yesterday he made it official. It's a little odd that he waited until the very week that Dianne Feinstein was laid to rest and her (temporary) replacement Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-CA) was seated, but we guess it's just a coincidence and there's no subtext there.
Now Garvey gets to play the game that all Republicans statewide in California get to play. He will have the (R) next to his name, in hopes of picking up Republican votes, but will pretend he's basically nonpartisan in hopes of getting independent and/or crossover Democratic votes. "In those 20 years that I played for the Dodgers and the Padres, played up in cold Candlestick Park, I never played for Democrats or Republicans or independents," he said in his announcement. "I played for all the fans, and I'm running for all the people." His list of issues includes education, crime, cost of living, housing affordability and homelessness. That's a good list, but is rather different from having actual policy ideas related to those issues. Thus far, Garvey hasn't stepped to the plate to take a swing at an actual proposal, so we'd say he has one strike against him and no balls. See, we can come up with hacky baseball metaphors too.
Nonetheless, we are required by the rules of the Psephologists Guild to consider every high-profile candidacy seriously. So, we will point out that Garvey's "lane" is the celebrity Republican lane. His role model is Arnold Schwarzenegger, who parlayed moderate Republicanism, celebrity and charisma into two statewide victories as governor. Inasmuch as Garvey is 74 and Schwarzenegger is 76, they are even generational peers.
Now the problems with this comparison. To start, Schwarzenegger's first victory came in a recall election, in which a plurality (48%) was enough to win. That literally cannot happen in a U.S. Senate election, thanks to California's top-two runoff system. Oh, and the state is bluer now than it was 20 years ago. Further, Arnold was an A-list, global, mega superstar with off-the-charts charisma when he ran for governor. Garvey is a three-decades-retired "Hall of Very Good" baseball player who will not be familiar to people unless they are: (1) over the age of 45 or 50, (2) sports fans, and probably (3) from Southern California. If we want to put it in movie star terms, it's like Tom Hulce or Ernie Hudson declaring for governor. Sure, they did some big movies in the 1980s, but it's not like they are Tom Cruise or Eddie Murphy.
On top of that, Garvey comes with some baggage. He was a serial philanderer who had multiple children out of wedlock. That may or may not be a problem today, but it certainly was back in the 1980s, since it ran contrary to his wholesome American boy image. On top of that, he acted as spokesman for a sleazy weight-loss product that didn't work, and has had a few other business ventures that raised eyebrows.
Add it up, and we're not seeing a Schwarzenegger clone here; we're seeing something much closer to a Caitlyn Jenner clone. Indeed, Jenner's prime athletic accomplishment was winning the decathlon in 1976, whereas Garvey's was being named NL MVP in 1974. So they too are generational peers. Jenner thought that name recognition and a bunch of vapid pandering would be enough to gain traction in the 2021 gubernatorial recall election, and was proven sadly wrong. A Senate race has a slightly different dynamic, and less competition on the Republican side, so it's at least possible that Garvey finishes in the top two and advances to the general. But it's not likely and, even if he does, he will be crushed by Adam Schiff, Katie Porter or whatever other Democrat he might face. (Z)