Dem
51
GOP
49
The campaign of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. signaled that this was coming last week, and now the candidate has made it official: Instead of running for president as a Democrat, he will wage an independent campaign. In an op-ed generously imbued with that frothing-at-the-mouth quality that the son of Bobby does so well, he decrees:
When John Adams put his pen down after adding his signature to the Declaration, he turned to those present and said, "Sink or swim, live or die, survive or perish, from this day on, I'm with my country." I make that same pledge today, so that I may stand before you as every leader should, free of partisan allegiance and backroom wheeling and dealing, a servant only to my conscience, to my Creator, and to you.
That's right, Junior has no shame in presenting himself as a latter-day Founding Father. This is the leitmotif that runs through the entire op-ed; a ham-fisted exercise in connecting "independent candidate" with the Declaration of Independence. Though our favorite part is actually this:
The two major parties are fielding candidates that most Americans do not want even to run. A shocking three-fourths of Americans believe President Biden is too old to govern effectively.
If Junior wins the election, as he promises to do in the op-ed, then on Inauguration Day, he would be 71 years old, making him the second-oldest president in history. Yes, we've seen the footage of him showing off his six-pack, but we are left to wonder when a person crosses the line from "perfectly capable" to "too old to govern properly." We are not aware that Junior has committed to a one-term presidency, which means he is presumably intending to run again and win in 2028 after he runs and wins in 2024. That would make him, on the final day of his presidency, 79 years, 4 days old. Biden is currently 80 years, 324 days old.
Kennedy's PAC has enough financial backing, mostly from right-wingers, that he should be able to hang around for a good, long time if that's what he really wants to do. You're not likely to see too many RFK Jr. commercials, because he really doesn't have that kind of money, but it doesn't cost too much to travel around the country for speeches and media appearances and county fair meet-and-greets (meets-and-greet? meats-and-greets?).
The first big question is, in a year where both major party frontrunners are unpopular, can Junior get some sort of traction? Preliminary indications are that he could be Ross Perot v2.0, as the handful of pollsters who guessed what might happen, and so already ran Biden vs. Trump vs. Kennedy polls, have the latter in the very low double digits (10-15%). That would theoretically be enough (or close to enough) to qualify for presidential debates... if there are any.
With that said, a candidate who is at 10% or so over a year out might reasonably hope and expect their support to grow as they campaign and as voters get to know them better. In Kennedy's case, we are inclined to predict that the opposite is actually the case. We are in prime "use my polling response to express my dissatisfaction with the field" time, and so the numbers may not be especially instructive as to what people will do when it comes time to cast their ballots. Further, Kennedy is surely being powered in no small way by his name recognition. Yesterday, several of his siblings issued a statement on his candidacy:
The decision of our brother Bobby to run as a third-party candidate against [President] Joe Biden is dangerous to our country. Bobby might share the same name as our father, but he does not share the same values, vision, or judgment. Today's announcement is deeply saddening for us. We denounce his candidacy and believe it to be perilous for our country.
As casual politics-watchers learn how the other members of the dynasty feel, or as they hear some of the crazy stuff that comes out of RFK Jr.'s mouth, the bloom may come off the rose a fair bit.
The second big question, meanwhile, is exactly whose hide any Kennedy votes will come out of. Here is a rough rundown of his views:
It's quite the melange of positions. Overall, it seems that a Trump voter would find more to like in that list than a Biden voter, but who really knows? Naturally, if Junior takes votes from both candidates in equal measure, then he's a non-factor whether he gets 5% of the vote or 20%.
That the question of "Whose votes will Kennedy attract?" is something of an enigma is indicated by the fact that both parties are saying they wish he'd stay the heck out of the race. So even they, with their internal polls and advanced metrics, don't really know what his impact might be. We will point out, however, that Junior now has to hustle to get on the ballot in 50 states (or however many he wants to try to get ballot access in). In general the bar is not very high, but it is within the power of state legislatures to make it harder to clear. So, we'll have to see if a bunch of blue-trifecta states or a bunch of red-trifecta states all of a sudden decide that a candidate really needs ten times as many signatures as previously required in order to get on the ballot. (Z)