Oct.10

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Israel, Ukraine Joined at the Hip

Israel and Ukraine are about a thousand miles apart, are located in different geopolitical spheres, have different historical rivals, and generally don't have all that much to do with each other. And yet now, somewhat by design, but substantially by circumstance, they are closely linked. Let's run down five ways that is true:

• Putin Ambitions: It will be a while before the behind-the-scenes machinations become public, if they ever do. Maybe Russian president Vladimir Putin called his good friends in Iran, and asked them to work with their good friends in Hamas to launch a war against Israel. Or maybe it was just a happy accident from the Russian's perspective (doubtful). In any case, Putin is hoping and predicting that the West will have to shift its focus to helping the Israelis, and that will fatally undercut support for Ukraine. Indeed, Putin has said that if the West goes all-in on Israel, Ukraine could collapse within a week.
  
  However, it is also entirely possible that the situation in Israel could strengthen the resolve of Western nations, and could serve to make the pro-Ukraine coalition stronger. Certainly, that has been the story so far.
  
  
• Propaganda: The obvious lens through which the two wars might be viewed is the one where Ukraine and Israel were both attacked without provocation, and deserve to be supported in their self-defense efforts. Put another way, if you support Israel, you should support Ukraine, and if you support Ukraine you should support Israel. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who's a shrewd operator, has already been making this case, remarking that "terror will have no allies" if the world stands up to acts of aggression.
  
  There is an alternate view, however, where the comparison is between Ukraine and Hamas. The argument here is that Ukraine was occupied and fought back with all its powers, and Gaza was occupied and fought back with all its powers. This perspective is mostly being expressed by lefties, particularly certain lefty members of Congress. That said, there are surely government officials in the Middle East who find much merit in this way of thinking, which could complicate diplomatic efforts long-term.
  
  
• Rationing: Vladimir Putin, as noted, hopes that the West will go all-in on Israel and will cut Ukraine off. That is not likely, but this does not mean that certain choices won't be made, since money and materiel are not infinite. To take a specific example, consider the 155 mm caliber artillery shell. At 2 feet long and 6 inches in diameter, these shells strike a good balance between range and power, with the result that they are used widely in NATO artillery (and, of course, NATO-made artillery).
  
  Ukraine uses them for 2S22 Bohdana howitzers, and is going through the shells at the rate of about 7,000 per day. Israel uses the shells in both the ATMOS 2000 and the Soltam M-71, and will undoubtedly be asking its allies to pony up. If we assume, just for ballpark purposes, that Israel would like to be able to expend half as many shells as Ukraine does, then we're looking at demand for roughly 10,000 shells a day, or 300,000 a month. At the moment, the U.S. manufactures about 28,000 per month. You see the problem: Production of the shells (even when including the contributions of other Western nations) does not match the demand, and eventually existing stockpiles will be exhausted. So, the day will likely come when the U.S. and its allies have to decide how to divide up the available 155 mm's between Ukraine and Israel.
  
  
• Pressure on Republicans: Some Republicans, mostly in the House, prefer to stop funding Ukraine. Roughly 100% of Republicans want to fund Israel, since the Republicans' evangelical Christian base would be furious if that did not happen. It has occurred to the White House to connect the two, to the chagrin of many in the House Republican Conference.
  
  Meanwhile, the pressure on a specific Republican is also increasing. That Republican, of course, would be Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL). His blockade of promotions has had only a nominal impact on Ukraine, since U.S. involvement there is indirect. However, Tuberville's blockade is having a much clearer and more substantive impact on operations related to Israel than the nominal impact it has had on the situation in Ukraine. Most obviously, the carrier group headed to the Middle East is missing fully half of its command-level officers. The Senator insisted yesterday that he won't back down. We'll see if he sticks with that once he starts hearing from staunchly pro-Israel Republican voters.
  
  
• The 2024 Presidential Race: Most of the Republican presidential "candidates" are making the argument that Joe Biden is somehow responsible for what happened in Israel because Iran-money-Hamas-hand waving-Let's Go Brandon. In other words, it's not a particularly compelling argument, or one supported by the evidence. Donald Trump, for his part, is taking it further, and decreed yesterday that if he were still in the White House, there would be no war in Ukraine and there would have been no Hamas attack on Israel. It's really quite remarkable how many problems he's able to solve as not the president, given how few he was able to solve as president.
  
  The Republican talking points are mostly nonsense and are likely to be forgotten long before people cast ballots next year. That said, if Ukraine and Israel both triumph in their respective fights in the next year, that will be politically beneficial for the fellow in the White House. On the other hand, if things go badly, he'll take a hit.

And there you have it. Two nations, not especially alike, but bound together by circumstance. (Z)