Dem
51
GOP
49
Newly appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-CA) has a big decision to make, and not much time in which to make it. Will she run for a full term or find some other job as of mid-November 2024 when the winner of the special election is sworn in? Friday is the deadline for submitting her name to the California Democratic Party, which could endorse her or one of her rivals. In mid-November, there is a California State Democratic Convention that could endorse one of the candidates. If the state party machinery and the convention picks someone else, that would be a huge blow to someone who has to build a campaign from scratch against three well-known opponents, two of whom have over $10 million in the bank already. What could her pitch be? I'm a Black woman? So is Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA), who has been in the House for decades. What makes her better than Lee?
The three main candidates are not sitting around waiting for her to decide. Lee, who has been endorsed by the Congressional Black Caucus and many other Black organizations, has been lobbying members of that caucus to stick with her and not the new kid on the block. Her pitch is: "Why support an unknown, inexperienced, Black woman over a well-known, battle-tested Black woman?" A number of members of the caucus reiterated their support for Lee. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO) said: "I hope that she [Butler] won't run, for a lot of reasons." Rep. Greg Meeks (D-NY), chairman of the Black Caucus' PAC, said: "As far as I know, there's only one Black woman that is running in the primary, and that's Barbara Lee." If Butler jumps in and most members of the Black Caucus continue to support Lee, it will be painful for Butler. If they switch horses in midstream, Lee is going to paint them all as turncoats. It won't be pretty.
Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), who has raised 3x as much money as all the others combined, touted his fundraising lead, which he hoped would get Butler's attention, and especially that of reporters writing about the race. Both Schiff and Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) have massive e-mail lists and they are hitting them up for money and support.
Also relevant here is the case of Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA), also originally an appointed senator. Months after his appointment, his name recognition in the state was stuck in the teens, even though he had been in elective politics for 20 years and had won two statewide elections as secretary of state. There was huge publicity about the appointment of the state's first Latino senator, but 85% of the voters seem to have missed it. Butler has never won an election, so she figures to have even worse name recognition issues.
A private poll of the Senate race was released last week. It asked people to pick one of the candidates from a list of names. Butler's support was so low it amounted to statistical noise. All three of the others are well known in the state.
There are also reports that oppo research on Butler is gearing up. She's never been under a national microscope before. As leader of the nonprofit EMILY's List, Butler faced attacks on her goals (helping women who support abortion access running for public office), but nobody ever examined her own background with a fine-tooth comb and went after her personally. If she decides to go for it, she will get an unpleasant introduction to electoral politics anno 2023. Maybe she is clean as a hound's tooth. If so, good for her. She was a member of the state Board of Regents for 3 years. Did she take any controversial votes there (e.g., on affirmative action)? She worked for a political strategy firm for several years. One of her clients was Uber, which was trying to fend off a union. How will unions feel about that? She also worked for Airbnb for a few years. How does the hotel industry feel about that? We could find out.
Who has the deepest roots in California? Butler was born in Mississippi and moved to California in 2009. Now she lives in Maryland with her wife, although she owns a house in View Park, CA. Porter was born in Iowa and has lived in California for 12 years. Schiff was born in Massachusetts but graduated from Monte Vista High School in 1978, so he has been in California for 45 years. Lee was born in Texas but graduated from San Fernando High School in 1964, so she has been in the state for 59 years. Schiff and Lee are sure to point out how long they have been in the state and try to paint Butler as a carpetbagger.
Does Butler have any personal scandals? Researchers are looking into it as you read this. We don't know what she will do. Probably she doesn't either. Once people get to be in the spotlight, they often think they are invincible. Think about Presidents Scott Walker, Rudy Giuliani, Ted Cruz, and, course, President Jeb!, among many others. (V)