Dem
51
GOP
49
Saturday morning, Hamas fired a barrage of 2,200 Iranian rockets from the Gaza Strip into cities all over Israel. Islamic militants broke out of the Gaza Strip in at least five places and rampaged through Israel, killing people and taking women and children as hostages. The surprise attack killed at least 700 Israelis and wounded at least another 1,100. Proportionally, this is as if the Sept. 11 attacks had killed 25,000 Americans and injured another 39,000. Some Americans have been killed or captured in Israel as well (at least four, and the number might rise). The hostages could be used to try to affect how Joe Biden responds. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded by saying: "We are at war, and we will win. The enemy will pay an unprecedented price." Israel immediately began retaliating by attacking Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip. At least 400 Palestinians are reported to have been killed so far. Israel also cut off electricity to the entire Gaza Strip.
A war in the Middle East affects the U.S. in so many ways it is hard to even keep track of them all. First, as soon as he heard about the attacks, Biden called them horrific and said: "My administration's support for Israel's security is rock solid and unwavering" (Note: nothing about the Palestinians). Biden also said he would offer "all appropriate means of support" to the U.S. ally. Undoubtedly this includes whatever military goodies the Israeli army wants. Republicans instinctively oppose everything Biden says or does. What are they going to do now? Support an Iran-backed terrorist group that just killed 700+ innocent civilians in cold blood? Remember that the biggest backers of Israel in the U.S. aren't Jews, many of whom are secular and don't like Netanyahu one bit. No, the biggest backers are evangelical Christians, who believe that having a Jewish state in Israel is a precondition for Jesus to show up, wave his hands, and cause all Christians, both dead and alive, to be teleported together to heaven on the spot, a procedure technically called rapture (from the Latin rapta, meaning "kidnapping"). Evangelicals are the Republican base. When Biden takes concrete steps, will the Republicans in Congress support Biden (which they hate to do) or oppose him (thus angering their own base)?
Second, if Biden wants to send financial or military aid to Israel, that may require Congress to pass a bill, depending on the details of what he decides. Getting a bill through the Senate will be easy. Most Senate Republicans support Israel and certainly none want to have to campaign against "He/She supported the terrorists who attacked Israel." Mitch McConnell immediately coupled aid to Israel to aid to Ukraine. McConnell said: "Failure to support friends under attack—in Kyiv or Tel Aviv—will only embolden the world's largest state sponsor of terrorism [Iran] and fellow authoritarians who watch closely for a weakening of American leadership and Western solidarity." Both Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise support Israel. Yesterday Jordan said: "America stands with Israel today and every day. It must defend itself against these Hamas terrorists. We will continue to pray for our great ally and its citizens." Scalise said: "Make no mistake. The United States will always stand with Israel, our greatest ally in the Middle East. They must defend themselves as their citizens are slaughtered by Hamas terrorists. They have our full support and our prayers." Fortunately, the House has a chaplain, Rear Admiral Margaret Kibben (the first female chaplain in either chamber), so it can pray right now (even without a speaker)—unless Republicans balk at praying under the leadership of a Nancy Pelosi appointee. But the House likely can't do anything else, like pass some aid bill the Senate sends over, until it has a speaker. That could take a bit of time (see above).
Third, the attack messes up Biden's plans for the Middle East. Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia (because his father, King Salman, is too ill to run the government) is willing to make peace with Israel so he can concentrate on dealing with Saudi Arabia's archenemy, Iran. He doesn't give a camel turd about the Palestinians (although his enfeebled father does). Biden is trying to broker a deal among Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. which would include a U.S. promise to defend Saudi Arabia from an attack by Iran in return for a formal peace treaty between Israel and Saudi Arabia. MBS, as he is known, is OK with making peace with Israel because he knows Israel will never launch an unprovoked attack on the Kingdom, whereas Iran might. However, he also wants equipment for building nuclear weapons, something Netanyahu and Biden will never agree to. It is all very complicated and a war between Israel and an Iran-backed Hamas makes it even more complicated, especially if Israel uses overwhelming force in Gaza. Biden's hopes for a big foreign-policy win just got scrambled by the attack.
In fact, Iran likely ordered Hamas to attack Israel just to foil Biden's plans. It is not keen on an Israeli-Saudi-U.S. alliance against Iran. Last week Iran's supreme leader gave a speech attacking the idea of normalizing the relationship with the Zionist entity (precisely what Biden and MBS were talking about). The attack puts Netanyahu in a bind because his position as prime minister is dependent on the support of several extremely far-right parties in his cabinet, who, like the Freedom Caucus in the House, exert a power many times their actual numbers. Iran is trying to exploit this weakness. The U.S. is lucky that the President had 30 years experience on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and 8 years as veep to a president who wasn't too interested in foreign policy. That might work out better than a president whose foreign policy is "Whatever Putin wants, Putin gets." What Putin wants, incidentally, is for Hamas to win the war with Israel.
Fourth, the U.S. doesn't have an ambassador to Israel at the moment. Biden nominated Jack Lew, but the Senate hasn't confirmed him. Suddenly, this is a top priority for the administration. However, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and other Republicans are in no hurry to confirm Lew. In addition, the U.S. military may want to deploy ships off the coast of Israel. That would work a lot better if there were a chief of naval operations in place. But Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) is holding up the confirmation of the chief in an attempt to get the Pentagon to change its policies relating to servicewomen seeking an abortion. Even now, with Israel in crisis, Tuberville is not budging.
Fifth, the attack and responses also affect the Republican primary. Donald Trump blamed Biden for the attack because Biden made a deal with Iran in which Iran will release five Americans it holds in prison in return for the U.S. moving $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets to a bank in Qatar to be used only for humanitarian purposes. Mike Pence tore into Trump and some of his rivals, faulting "voices of appeasement like Donald Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis that I believe have run contrary to the tradition in our party that America is the leader of the free world." Could foreign policy rear its ugly head in the next Republican debate? Stay tuned. (V)