Dem
51
GOP
49
Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) actually has two kinds of trouble. The first is legal, as his clumsy ballet with representatives of the Egyptian government was discovered, and appears to have created serious exposure for the Senator. The second is political, as there is enormous pressure on Menendez to resign, and little hope for him when it comes to being reelected in 2024.
Initially, Menendez was defiant. After his indictment, he said that there was no way he would resign his seat, and that he still expected to run for reelection. This week, he's been a little less unyielding. Speaking with NBC, he declined to comment on a possible resignation, while saying that a decision on his reelection bid is still pending, and that "I'm not going to jeopardize any seat in New Jersey under any circumstances."
What can account for this change in the Senator's posture? Could be that the passage of a little time has allowed him to calm down and think more rationally. Could be that at least 31 of his Democratic colleagues in the Senate have publicly called for his resignation (and there are probably more saying it behind closed doors). Could be the new poll from Data for Progress, which puts his net favorability with New Jersey voters at -57 points (18% approve, 75% disapprove), and which also says that if the primary were held next week, the Senator would get just 9% of the vote, as compared to 48% for already-announced challenger Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ). In, say, a four-way primary, it's possible to hold on and win with 30% of the vote. Can't be done with 9%, however. At this rate, Menendez would need something like a 15-way primary, ideally with four of his challengers all having the name Andy Kim.
It all points to something we've already written (although now we have hard evidence): Menendez' troubles are not likely to cost the Democrats a Senate seat, because he is going to be out of the running long before next year's general election. (Z)