Dem
51
GOP
49
Back when it was clear that there was a real possibility that he might get to appoint another senator, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) said that he wanted to appoint a placeholder so as not to interfere in the race for the open Senate seat in 2024. He could have made a deal with his choice, Laphonza Butler, in which she promised not to run in 2024 as the price for the appointment. He didn't. As soon as he announced her name, Black groups began immediately demanding that she be free to run in 2024 if she wants to—even though there is an established Black candidate, Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA), already in the race. Newsom didn't want to get into a fight with them, so he said she was free to run in 2024 if she wanted to. That got them off his back. Could she run?
She was sworn in on Tuesday by President of the Senate Kamala Harris, so she is up and running in her new job already. She is the third Black woman to serve in the Senate and the first Black lesbian. Some members will greet her with great warmth, especially Democratic senators Catherine Cortez Masto (NV) and Maggie Hassan (NH), who received lots of financial help from EMILY's List, where Butler used to be president. But is Butler ready to start campaigning the day she takes office?
The filing deadline is Dec. 8, 2023, so she can certainly file if she wants to. There is no legal problem with Butler running. Only a massive political one. The problem is that Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), who is from populous Southern California, has over $30 million cash on hand and is a really good fundraiser. He managed the first impeachment of Donald Trump, and many Democrats see him as a hero. Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) is also from Southern California. She has $10 million in the bank and is leftier than Schiff, which gives her an edge with the leftiest Democrats. Lee has only $1 million, is from Northern California, and is Black. How is Butler going to beat all three? Incumbency is worth something, but generally only when it is earned, not when it is a gift, especially not against strong primary opponents. Since 1990, there have been 34 appointees to the Senate who have faced reelection. Only 14 ran for reelection and won. That is 41%. Some saw that they didn't have much of chance and didn't run. Some lost their primaries. And making it into the top two against these three would be tough.
Yes, Butler is strongly pro-choice, but so are the other three. Black groups are unlikely to support her because most have already endorsed Lee and it would look very opportunistic to suddenly drop Lee, even though Butler is 33 years younger than Lee. Also working against Butler even trying is that her life has not been in politics. She could go back to EMILY's List or some other nonprofit easily. In addition, how could she be a functioning senator in D.C. if she has to spend the next 6 months in California campaigning? Sure, she could earn a lot of frequent flyer miles flying across the country every week to campaign, but then the other candidates would accuse her of putting her personal interest above that of Californians by not doing her job as a senator. That holds to some extent for the other three, but they are all well-established names because all have been in California politics for years. The one thing Butler has going for her is that she is a lesbian, which none of the others are, but the number of voters for whom that is the deciding factor is probably not big enough to make a dent.
And by the way, Pretend-Arizona-governor Kari Lake is in. Not in California, of course, but Arizona. She has filed the paperwork to run for the Senate this week. She's in now, so that probably means she won't be Donald Trump's running mate. If she thought she had that in the bag, she wouldn't have filed to run for the Senate. If she were to get the Republican nomination for the Senate and then drop out to run for vice president, that would anger a lot of Republicans, and not only in Arizona. We think she is now really gunning for the Senate. So far, her only opponent for the GOP Senate nomination is Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. She will dispatch him with ease. Her only fear is that immigrant-hating immigrant Peter Thiel will decide to give Blake Masters $15 million to run for the Senate (again). That would be a serious contest. (V)