Dem
51
GOP
49
Now that things are heating up, and there's a real basis for movement, we're going to make sure to do these monthly. Today will be a Senate update and Friday will be a presidential update.
To start, we asked readers to judge which Senate seats are most likely to flip in next year's elections. The new rankings are in the second column, since June is when we last asked:
| State | Current Holder | May Rank | June Rank |
| Montana | Jon Tester (D) | 2 | 1 |
| West Virginia | Joe Manchin (D) | 1 | 2 |
| Arizona | Kyrsten Sinema (I) | 4 | 3 |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (D) | 3 | 4 |
| Texas | Ted Cruz (R) | 5 | 5 |
| Florida | Rick Scott (R) | 6 | 6 |
| Nevada | Jacky Rosen (D) | 7 | 7 |
| Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin (D) | 8 | 8 |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey (D) | 9 | 9 |
| Michigan | Open (Debbie Stabenow, D) | NR | 10 |
| California | Open (Dianne Feinstein, D) | 10 | NR |
Note that we are defining "flip" as "will be claimed by the caucus/conference that does not currently control the seat." So, if Sinema wins or if Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) claims that seat, then it isn't a flip.
We've also asked readers to guess how many seats the Democrats would hold once the dust has settled next November:
| Month | Low | High | Mean | Median | Mode |
| May | 28 | 60 | 49.71 | 50 | 50 |
| June | 28 | 62 | 49.88 | 50 | 50 |
The "question of the month" was: "Counting from June 7, how many days until Donald Trump is indicted for the Mar-a-Lago documents?" There were just over a hundred readers who correctly guessed "2," as the indictment came down on June 9. The average guess was 39.66 days, which is not far off from July 28 (51 days), when the superseding indictment was filed.
The new "question of the month" is this: Who will be the next Speaker of the House? The ballot is here! (Z)