Dem
51
GOP
49
Speaking of quixotic presidential campaigns we were not sure we'd be writing about again, there is some news worth mentioning out of the RFK Jr. camp: He is laying the groundwork for an independent bid.
If one's goal is to get attention and/or sell books about quackery, this makes all the sense in the world. If Kennedy were to stick with being a Democrat, then sore-loser laws would end his candidacy in most states once the primary is held. As an independent, he can be a "presidential candidate" until Election Day of next year. That's more than enough to get him an endless supply of interview opportunities with fringe/kooky media outlets.
The question, of course, is whose hide RFK Jr. votes would come out of: Donald Trump's or Joe Biden's (assuming they are the candidates). We do not know that at this point, since polling of third-party candidates is even less meaningful a year out than polling of major-party candidates. We can say this, however:
Reasons Democrats might vote RFK Jr.: He says he is a Democrat, he is a Kennedy
Reasons Trumpers might vote RFK Jr.: Everything that comes out of his mouth
For what it is worth, an RFK campaign insider decreed: "This is going to f**k Trump." Certain Trumpy commenters on the right, like Charlie Kirk, agree. And virtually all of Kennedy's money is coming from right-wingers.
Whatever the polls show, when and if things start to take shape, just keep in mind that some sizable portion of people who say they are going to vote third-party do not ultimately do so. It's easier to say you're going to spend your vote on a sure loser than it is to actually do it. That said, if polls begin to show that RFK Jr. is drawing twice as much support from Trumpers than from people who would otherwise vote Biden, that's probably meaningful. We hope that pollsters make a point of asking this question: "If you had to vote for a major-party candidate, which would you vote for?" (Z)