Dem
51
GOP
49
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) badly wants to stick it to Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), in part because the two men loathe each other, and in part because Gaetz has decided that "more extreme than Ron DeSantis" is a good strategy for getting elected governor of Florida in 2026. However, there clearly isn't much enthusiasm for jettisoning the Speaker right now, even among the Freedom Caucusers, who would prefer to reserve the maneuver for a more appropriate time. In a development that should surprise nobody, Gaetz weighed his own personal interests versus what his colleagues want, and decided his own needs are paramount. So, he filed the motion to vacate yesterday afternoon.
At the moment, Gaetz has two problems to worry about. The first is that if he is actually going to send McCarthy packing, he needs to round up the 218 votes to do it. If the Representative is going to succeed, he'll need big-time buy-in from the Democrats, along with some buy-in from the FCers. Neither is a sure thing. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is playing his cards close to the vest, but there is some upside in rallying his caucus behind either course of action. The Democrats could support a motion to vacate, thus creating chaos on the other side of the aisle. Then the blue team would stock up on popcorn, enjoy the show, and do media hit after media hit talking about what happens when you let the Republicans/the Trumpers have actual power.
The blue team's alternative is to work with McCarthy to save his speakership in exchange for concessions. There's been no indication that such discussions have taken place, or that McCarthy would be open to cooperating with the enemy. That said, there's no viable long-term plan for McCarthy that doesn't involve working with the Democrats sometimes. And let's be honest, the Democrats are more inclined to play nice than to go full Machiavelli. So, the odds of a meeting of the minds have to be somewhat meaningful.
Meanwhile, the votes of the FCers would seem to be the easier part of the equation but... maybe not so much, as it turns out. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is not a formal member of the FC anymore, but she still shares their mindset. She warned yesterday that Gaetz' maneuver "will not be tolerated" by Republican voters. Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO), unlike Greene, is still a member of the FC and is not a sometime-ally of McCarthy. He blasted the motion to vacate as "a waste of time" driven by Gaetz' "personal grudge" with the Speaker. The entertainers on Fox are also pooh-poohing the move. It is hard to imagine that Gaetz would have moved forward without having at least some FC support, but thus far none of his far-right colleagues have publicly committed to supporting the move.
In short, Gaetz' maneuver could very well be in trouble. Since this is the first time in more than a century that there has been an attempt to vacate the chair, and since the chair has never actually been successfully vacated, the Representative should have foreseen that this was going to be a tough hill to climb. The fact that McCarthy's "crime" is merely maintaining the status quo makes that doubly true; there would undoubtedly be more FC sentiment for vacating once McCarthy grants some actual, significant concessions to the Democrats.
And if Gaetz fails, and ends up with egg on his face, that's not the end of it. He's threatening to bring motions to vacate daily, just to make his point... or something. But this brings us to the second problem he needs to worry about. Most of his colleagues loathe him; they dislike his political grandstanding, and they also dislike him personally. Meanwhile, the Representative's track record is not exactly as pure as the driven snow. And so there is some scuttlebutt that House Republicans might vote to expel Gaetz. They would be down a member for a while, but eventually the ruby-red FL-01 (R+19) would elect another Republican to replace him. That would eliminate this particular headache, unless the person elected to replace Gaetz is... Matt Gaetz (very much like what happened with the two state House members in Tennessee).
In short, there's a lot of 3-D chess to be played in a short time. A motion to vacate is privileged, so it won't be long until we see how things play out. (Z)