Dem
51
GOP
49
Dianne Feinstein's death will have a surprising effect on the Senate race for the open seat from which she was retiring. Reps. Adam Schiff (D-CA), Katie Porter (D-CA), and Barbara Lee (D-CA) are in a hotly contested battle for it. California is an expensive state and in the fundraising battle, Schiff is far ahead. As of June 30, here is how much cash they had on hand (also for the irrelevant candidate, Lexi Reese, a former executive at American Express and Google):
It is widely expected that Schiff and Porter will meet in the runoff in November, 2024. Whichever one wins will take the seat on Jan. 3, 2025. However, Gavin Newsom's appointee, Laphonza Butler, will serve only until a special election is held on Nov. 5, 2024, and someone is elected to fill out the rest of Feinstein's term. The winner will serve starting as soon as the special election results are certified, and will remain until Jan. 3, 2025. The winner of the special election will thus serve for about 6 weeks, from mid-November 2024 until Jan. 3, 2025. It is virtually certain that Schiff, Porter, and Lee will all file to run in the special election. Most likely the same person will win both the special election on Nov. 5, 2024 (for the 6-week term) and the regular election on Nov. 5, 2024 (for the 6-year term). The extra 6 weeks will give the winner more seniority than any senators who are seated on Jan. 3, 2025 (for example, the winner of the open seat race in Michigan).
But a quirk in the election law has fundraising implications. The special election is seen as a separate election unrelated to the regular election. That means that there will be, in effect, four U.S. Senate elections in California next year: regular primary and special primary (on the same day) and regular general and special general (also on the same day). That means donors who gave any of the candidates $3,300 for the regular primary and $3,300 for the regular general election are free to donate another $3,300 for the special election primary and yet another $3,300 for the special general election. Schiff has almost 500 donors who are maxed out at $6,600 already. Porter has 47 maxed-out donors. They can now be hit up for another $6,600. If they all pony up, Schiff will take in another $3.2 million and Porter will take in another $310,000. That will further shift the financial balance toward Schiff.
Polling shows Schiff and Porter close. However, one thing to keep in mind is that 34% of Californians voted for Donald Trump in 2020. Yes, Virginia, there are Republicans in California. In fact, there are more Republicans in California than there are people in Virginia. And they get to vote in the general election. Most of them are likely to choose the lesser of two evils (Schiff or Porter). From their point of view, Schiff may be less bad than Porter because he is not quite as lefty as Porter (although he is no centrist by any means). Also, Republicans often prefer male candidates to female candidates. Of the 26 female senators at the moment, 15 are Democrats, 9 are Republicans, and 1 is an independent.
On the other hand, Schiff prosecuted Donald Trump in the first impeachment, and so is radioactive with the Trumpy set. Probably what happens is that the Trumpy Republicans, who surely aren't going to vote for a progressive woman, don't vote for either of them, while Never Trump Republicans break for the more centrist and male Schiff. (V)