Dem
51
GOP
49
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) has the power and responsibility to name the replacement for the late Dianne Feinstein to the Senate. Long ago, he said a couple of things that have come back to haunt him. First, he said he'd pick a Black woman if he got another Senate pick. Second, he said he wouldn't pick sides in the 2024 primary by choosing someone who might run for the open seat. That rather limits his options, particularly if he wants someone whose résumé justifies such a prestigious posting.
If Feinstein had passed away a year ago, the pick likely would have been Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA), who is now 77. It would have been the capstone to a long and distinguished career, and someone who is north of 75 surely wouldn't run for for a job where it takes 15-20 years to get real power, right? Wrong. Lee declared for the race, and so now she violates Newsom rule #2. She's out.
Next on the list, very probably, is Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA), who is 85 and who would be an ideal placeholder. She is a fire-breathing progressive and that wing of the Democratic Party would be pleased with her appointment. The only problem is that she doesn't want the job. If she runs for reelection and wins (something she has done 17 times already) and Democrats take control of the House, she will become chair of the House Banking Committee. That would be a far more powerful position than being a junior senator.
How about Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, who is 69? Not likely. She just spent over a year fighting hard for her current job. She can, and probably will, be mayor for 7 more years. And as mayor, she's the biggest fish in the pond, which many politicians prefer to being a much smaller fish in a much bigger pond. Especially when you only get to be that small fish for a year.
If the mayor of California's most important city is out, how about the mayor of its second most important? San Francisco Mayor London Breed is only 49 and she has been involved in a number of ethics scandals. Polls show that half of San Francisco residents disapprove of the job she is doing and three-quarters think the city is heading in the wrong direction. She could well lose reelection in 2024. If Newsom is willing to pick someone who is sorta radioactive, serving in the Senate would get her off the hook, so she would probably be amenable. Then she would have to find something else to do. Maybe she could help plot the overthrow of the U.S. government. We hear that is a popular second act for former big-city mayors.
Another possible candidate is California Secretary of State Shirley Weber. She got that job because Newsom plucked her out of the California Assembly and put her there after sending then-SoS Alex Padilla to the Senate. Weber was born in Arkansas but her family fled to California after a white mob threatened to lynch her father. She got her Ph.D. from UCLA and had a decorated career as an academic before running for the Assembly. She is as progressive as Lee and is 75. However, she said she supports Lee for the promotion, and doesn't want to be a turncoat.
There's also Malia Cohen, who is Controller of California. She would have to give up a statewide position. She is only 45 and is obviously nowhere close to retirement. For her, the gamble would be that a year in the Senate could be a stepping stone to something else. She might see a seat in the Senate as a step down. Maybe something as a lobbyist or something in the private sector in banking? Some people are willing to give up what they have now and take a risk. However, she could also decide she kinda likes D.C., and might want to run for a term in her own right. It's not like "I promise to be a placeholder" is legally binding. If Newsom wants to be sure, it has to be someone who is not likely to get delusions of grandeur.
One last politician possibility is Holly Mitchell (59). She was in the Assembly for 3 years, then 7 years in the state Senate. Now she is on the Los Angeles Board of Supervisors. She is 59, so after her year as a senator she would be 60. Then what? Maybe work for some nonprofit or run for some statewide office? Plus, L.A. Supervisors are actually quite powerful, so much so that they are known as the "five little kings," and can generally do more to implement change than one senator can (even if it's many fewer people being affected). Oh, and L.A. Supervisors can serve for up to 12 years. It is our understanding that 12 years is more than 1 year.
And here, now, is the point of all of this. Newsom really painted himself into a corner, because there aren't great options for him. Every notable politician he might pick is either not interested, or fails one of his two "tests," or has baggage, or is a risk to decide that they might like to run for Senate after all. He could pick an obscure officeholder, but promoting someone from the Assembly or the West Cupcake City Council to the U.S. Senate would not be a great look. The new senator will be responsible for representing nearly 40 million people, and there literally isn't time for them to learn the ins and outs of big-time politics on the job.
But the Governor is pretty sharp, or else he has some pretty sharp people working for him, because he managed to pull a rabbit out of a hat. His choice is... EMILY's List President Laphonza Butler. She's a Black woman, so she fulfills that part of the promise. Although she's only in her 40s, she's not terribly likely to decide she wants to run for the Senate after all (plus, while most of the other candidates would be risking successful careers, Butler's private-sector employer would probably welcome her back after a year, since a U.S. senator's name on the masthead is great for marketing). And while she's not an experienced officeholder, running a major PAC requires many of the same skills. Although Butler is a California native and votes in the Golden State, she's based in Washington and knows pretty much everyone.
And Butler not only extracts Newsom from the problem he created for himself, she also checks some "bonus" boxes that he's undoubtedly delighted to check. She's not only a woman, she runs one of the most important pro-woman organizations in the country. That will please women voters. She's Black, of course. She's progressive, so the lefties will be happy. And she's gay, making this a tip of the cap to that community. Now Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) won't have to eat alone when there's a lunch meeting of the Senate Lesbian Caucus.
It will not take long to seat Butler. All that really has to happen is that the California Secretary of State has to produce credentials affirming that Butler is the duly chosen replacement for Feinstein, and is legally entitled to the vacant seat. Then, the Secretary of the Senate has to approve the paperwork, Butler has to be sworn in, and that's that. Normally, she'd need some time to hire a staff, but under the circumstances, she'll surely just keep Feinstein's staff in place. The new senator will presumably be on the job by the end of the week, and it's not impossible that she takes her seat sometime today. And then the number of colleagues who hate Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) will once again be at 99. (V & Z)