Dem
51
GOP
49
Maybe you think MTV has something to do with television. Not anymore. Starting now, it stands for Motion To Vacate. Yesterday, we wrote that a motion to vacate the chair (i.e., try to fire Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-CA) is like a single-use fire extinguisher: You can use it only one time. We speculated that Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) might be able to control his impulses and save that one use for a more-important moment later—like when McCarthy works with the Democrats on the actual budget bill, not on some bill that merely kicks the can so it bangs into the Thanksgiving turkey. If the motion to vacate fails to get 218 votes, Gaetz will be shown to be a paper tiger and such motions will be useless in the future. If it works and McCarthy is also kicked down the road, no future potential speaker will ever make the concessions that McCarthy made.
Yesterday, Gaetz told CNN's Jake Tapper: "I think we need to rip off the band-aid. I think we need to move on with new leadership that can be trustworthy." We don't know what Gaetz has been smoking, but he definitely has been inhaling it. There is no way that the Freedom Caucus will get a more pliant speaker than McCarthy. If Gaetz thinks that Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) or Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) or one of the crazy ladies from Georgia or Colorado could get 218 votes, he is completely delusional. Most likely, one of three things will happen: (1) McCarthy won't be deposed at all because the votes aren't there, (2) McCarthy will be deposed, but will win the speakership again, possibly after another 15 rounds of voting or (3) some moderate Republican will be elected speaker with 200 Democratic votes. None of those scenarios will make Gaetz a happy man.
McCarthy does have his supporters, though—albeit some of them in the other chamber. Yesterday on Face the Nation, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said: "I think Kevin is the right guy at the right time. The only way he loses his job is if a handful of Republicans join up with the Democratic Party to fire him. That would be a disaster for the future of the Republican Party." Sounds like he is giving the Democrats some advice on how to vote if Gaetz pulls the trigger and makes the motion to vacate the chair. Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who is no longer in the Democratic leadership but is still a highly respected leader among the Democrats, was coy. She told Tapper: "My advice to my fellow Democrats is simple: Follow the leader." However, not all Democrats are on the same page as Pelosi. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also went on CNN and said: "I do not intend on voting for a Republican speaker of the House, but I believe that it's up to the Republican Conference to determine their own leadership and deal with their own problems." So she is a "yes" vote on the MTV no matter what the Democratic leadership wants. But she left open the door a little by suggesting that with enough concessions from McCarthy, maybe she could reach "no." Other Democrats made it clear that they will do whatever Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) asks them to do. We may find out soon what that is.
Since the motion to vacate is almost a certainty, the Democrats have to start thinking of what their strategy will be. They might not be united. Ocasio-Cortez is not the only progressive who would be happy to dump McCarthy. That probably holds for most or all of the 100+ Democrats in the Congressional Progressive Caucus. What about the rest? Will Jeffries tell McCarthy that he needs to make big-time concessions to get his support, starting with denouncing his own decision to investigate Joe Biden? What if McCarthy refuses?
Suppose Jeffries tells his members to vote their districts and McCarthy survives. Then Gaetz could introduce an MTV again and force a second vote. And a third one. Sometime around MTV 15, will McCarthy give up? Or will Gaetz? Could McCarthy get a rule passed saying that henceforth it takes 10 or 20 or 50 members to force a vote on an MTV?
For Democrats, a fundamental issue is whether they want to keep McCarthy or try to get one of the moderate Republicans elected as speaker, largely with Democratic votes—if that is even possible. One argument for the Democrats keeping McCarthy is that it's better the devil known than the devil unknown. But an argument for ditching him is that he is by far the House Republicans' best fundraiser. If he is booted, there is no one else in the GOP caucus who can match his donor network and relationships. Getting rid of him would cripple the NRCC and help the Democrats retake the House in 2024.
For Jeffries, these are "interesting" times. Never before has the minority leader had so much power. What should he do? What would Jesus do? No, scratch that. What would Nancy do? (V)