Nov.30

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

The Three Fantasies That Explain Why Congress Does Not Work

Steven Pearlstein, a professor of public affairs at George Mason University, has written a very interesting op-ed over at Politico that goes a long way toward explaining why Congress, especially the House, is completely dysfunctional and why that is unlikely to change any time soon. Here is a brief summary of his points:

• The right-wing fantasy: Right-wing zealots have been a force in the House since Newt Gingrich took control in 1994. In the ensuing 30 years (almost), they have discovered that they are never going to get a majority by winning elections. So they have switched strategies. Now the goal is to hang tough, pervert parliamentary rules to the max, trash the norms of decency, threaten catastrophe, hold the country hostage, and wear down opponents until they can take charge. It is a small group—the Freedom Caucus has never had more than 30-40 members—but they make up for their small size by making a lot of noise, ousting speakers regularly, etc. To them it is obvious that "Obamacare" has to be repealed, food stamps have to be decimated, climate change is a hoax, all abortions should be banned, and anybody should be able to stock up on AR-15s, AK-47s, and Uzis at will. Pearlstein recently asked Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), one of the ringleaders, what would happen if the FC crowd managed to impose its policies on the whole country. He said there would be a grudging respect and acquiescence.
  
  What Roy, et al., can't see is that bullying the House Republican caucus into submission is not the same as conquering the country. They can't even bully the Senate, let alone the rest of the country. But they are so convinced that God is on their side that they are never going to stop. The only thing that could checkmate them is a unified Democratic majority or a Republican majority so large that their votes weren't needed.
  
  
• The left-wing fantasy: Progressive members of the House, led by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), are completely convinced that power is just around the corner. After all, poll after poll shows that Americans agree with them on abortion, LGBTQ+ rights, health care, immigration, parental leave, universal pre-K, and much more. How could they be wrong? As proof, they note that an unknown progressive senator, Bernie Sanders (I-VT), got 13 million votes against shoo-in Hillary Clinton in the 2016 primaries. What they miss is that 130 million people voted in the 2016 general election so at least 117 million more people could have voted for Bernie (in some cases, by first changing their party registration to Democratic) but didn't. They believe that the only reason they haven't been able to enact their full agenda is due to gerrymandering in the House and the filibuster in the Senate. They have missed the fact that the last three Democratic presidents (Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden) were moderates and the last three progressive Democratic presidential candidates (Hubert Humphrey, George McGovern, and Walter Mondale) won 13, 1, and 1 states, respectively (but all three won D.C., making it morally 14, 2, and 2).
  
  In reality, America is not a progressive paradise. While Americans agree with the items listed above, they don't want to go easier on criminals, eliminate cash bail, defund the police, attack structural racism, pay more for gas, or cut back on airplane travel. And they most definitely don't want to be called homophobic or transphobic because they strongly oppose boys who say they are girls playing on girls' sports teams and going into girls' locker rooms. That's why moderate Democrats can be elected president but progressive Democrats get crushed. But progressives are convinced the country is with them and are not going to change.
  
  
• The centrist fantasy: There is a caucus of about 100 centrist Democrats, led by Rep. Annie Kuster (D-NH). It is willing to take baby steps, like addressing fentanyl addiction, PTSD among first responders, suicides among active military, and helping ski resorts affected by climate change. But the much larger blocs on the left and right aren't really interested in what they are up to. They keep saying that most Americans are in the middle, but in reality, most House districts and states lean strongly one way or another, and in primaries, the most partisan candidate usually wins the nomination.
  
  The centrists have enough votes to block highly partisan bills but not enough votes to pass their own bills. Also, in the end, they usually cave to pressure from party leaders and fear being ostracized by their own caucuses. They also live in fear of being bullied by more partisan members of their own parties, or worse, being primaried by someone more extreme than they are. As a case study, consider former representative Peter Meijer (R), who had the courage to vote to impeach Donald Trump. Did the Democrats reward him for this act of bravery? Nope, they poured $2.4 million into the campaign of his far-right primary opponent, who then won the GOP nomination and lost the general election. Thank you for your moderation.
  

In the end, each of these factions is convinced of its righteousness and is not going to budge. Each of them is big enough to defeat proposals from the others, but not big enough to get its own legislation through. So the gridlock continues. (V)