Nov.24

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

This Week in Schadenfreude: The Brain Drain Is Underway

Red states have spent the last 10+ years, and in particular the last 2-3 years, pursuing policies that, on the whole, don't sit well with young people, or educated people, or progressive people. It's only been a year since Dobbs allowed the red states to severely limit abortion access, but the consequences of that development, and of the "own the libs" policies in general, are starting to show themselves. To wit:

• Texas is now the only red state to attract more college students than it sends away
  
  
• Applications for OB-GYN residencies are down 10% in red states that have banned or strictly limited abortion access. In addition, many OB-GYNs are fleeing to blue states. The result is that red states have to pay considerably higher salaries to OB-GYNs to have any hope of attracting... anyone.
  
  
• A survey of red-state college professors reveals that applications for tenure-line positions are way down, that 67% of existing tenured faculty would not recommend their institution to a colleague, and 30% are actively looking for employment elsewhere. That number jumps to 47% in Florida.
  
  
• Red states are having trouble attracting and/or keeping teachers. Texas teachers are quitting at a rate 25% above the national average. South Carolina is having trouble staffing 17 different subjects that are part of the state curriculum. In Florida, teacher vacancies were up 35% last year, and another 15% this year.

Given the generally low regard that Republican politicians have for education, and in particular higher education, these developments may largely be seen as positives and not negatives. However, there are lots of jobs that can only be done by college graduates, and the more of them that are driven away, the more that red states will lack essential services. Meanwhile, college graduates pay a lot more in taxes, on the whole, than non-graduates. Many red states already have a shaky tax base. If they allow these trends to continue, in service of the culture wars, then it will get harder and harder to make ends meet.

Ultimately, electing people like Ron DeSantis, Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD), and Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) has led red states closer and closer to something like pre-industrial status. Will voters choose a different sort of leadership? Or will they keep marching forward, into the sea? (Z)