Dem
51
GOP
49
It's only a primary, and it's only in one state. But this is the first major Republican primary anywhere since the Party's underwhelming performance in the midterms. So, politics-watchers are looking to the election for insight into the state of GOP politics.
On the Democratic side of the primary, there is zero intrigue. Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) is quite popular and is running for reelection. The only opponents he's drawn are Geoff Young, a perennial candidate, and Peppy Martin, a former Republican whose name sounds like someone who should be playing catcher for the 1903 Chicago White Sox. The Governor will clear at least 80% of the vote, and probably more like 90%.
On the Republican side of the primary, by contrast, it's a real cage match. The early leader was state AG Daniel Cameron, who is black and Trumpy, and who has the endorsement of the former president. The AG is best known for his COVID "management," which included using the pandemic as pretext for banning all abortions in the state, and for his lack of interest in prosecuting the police officers who shot Breonna Taylor after breaking into her home (in a case of outdated information about who might be there)
In recent months, it appears that Kelly Craft has made up ground on Cameron. She is white, served as an ambassador in the Trump administration, and claims that she is the true Trumpy candidate. Somewhat helpful for Craft is the fact that her husband is a coal billionaire, and so she has been able to unleash a virtually unlimited amount of funding in support of her campaign. She's running on opposition to crime and to Chinese fentanyl.
There are 10 other Republicans in the race, though they don't seem to be a factor. That said, polling has been sparse, so you never know. The interesting story on Tuesday will be whether the truly Trumpy candidate (Cameron) or the Trump lite candidate (Craft) comes out on top. Then, the general election will give at least some insight into what percentage of Republicans these days are willing to cross the aisle to vote for a moderate Democrat. Last time, Beshear won 49.2% to 48.8% for Republican Matt Bevin, in a state that's R+16. In other words, Beshear needs to hold all the Democrats, and to get votes from about 12.5% of Republicans, in order to keep his job. (Z)