Dem
51
GOP
49
There are 18 House Republicans currently sitting in districts that Joe Biden won in 2020. NY-17 (above) is just one of them, but that race is going to be so high profile and so close to the media world in New York City that it rates its own section today. After all, any reporter in NYC can go to Grand Central Terminal, get on a Metro North express train, and be in Valhalla in the district in 44 minutes to talk to the locals, all for $11.25. Many will be tempted.
The other 17 "Biden districts" will also be highly competitive, although the DCCC hopes to be able to avoid nasty primaries like NY-17 will probably have. Democratic operatives all know that these races will probably determine control of the House this cycle. However, some of the incumbents are less vulnerable than others. For example, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) is in a strong position to hold on in PA-01 (EVEN) but "George Santos" in NY-03 (D+2) is a dead man walking. Democratic strategists think that 14 to 16 of the 18 districts might be winnable with the right candidate and some luck.
The process of winnowing the races and prioritizing them has already begun. Swing Left, a grassroots progressive group of activists and donors, has announced its list of initial targets. Sorted by the 2022 margin, they are:
| District | PVI | 2022 Margin | Incumbent | 2022 Democrat |
| CA-13 | D+4 | 0.4% | John Duarte | Adam Gray |
| NY-17 | D+3 | 0.6% | Michael Lawler | Sean Patrick Maloney |
| OR-05 | D+2 | 2.1% | Lori Chavez-DeRemer | Jamie McLeod Skinner |
| NY-04 | D+5 | 3.6% | Anthony D'Esposito | Laura Gillen |
| CA-27 | D+4 | 6.4% | Mike Garcia | Christy Smith |
| NY-03 | D+2 | 7.6% | "George Santos" | Rob Zimmerman |
Although it is a bit early in the cycle, Swing Left has donors and volunteers ready to go. The group thinks that starting to take down the incumbents now will have benefits later on. They also think that all that is needed is a decent Democrat who runs a good campaign because they expect all the races to be nationalized and donors from all over the country will contribute. Having spectacular candidates isn't required, just good ones.
In some districts, strong candidates have already announced. In CA-27, George Whitesides (D), a former Virgin Galactic CEO who can self-fund, is already in. In NY-03, Tom Suozzi (D) used to hold the seat but left to run for governor. He might come back, in which case "George Santos" will be sent packing.
Swing Left is not the only group going after the "Biden 18." The recent vote on the debt ceiling bill is going to come back and haunt them. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) said: "We are not surprised that so-called Republican moderates, who talk a good game, but at the end of the day always, always, always vote with the extremists. They are going to have to answer for their hypocrisy."
A super PAC affiliated with the House Democrats is already running a television ad accusing the Republicans of threatening to default on the national debt or wildly slash things Americans care about. It is clear already that the Biden 18 are going to be hit over and over on this vote. (V)