Dem
51
GOP
49
Presidents who want a second term generally get it. Since the Civil War, only seven elected presidents who tried to be reelected failed to win a second term: Grover Cleveland, Benjamin Harrison, William Howard Taft, Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Donald Trump. Does this tell us anything about Joe Biden's chances? Maybe, if we examine why the Unlucky Seven lost.
Cleveland was an anomaly to start with. In the late 19th century, politics split along the Mason-Dixon line, with the South overwhelmingly Democratic and the North primarily Republican (yup, really). Cleveland, who was from upstate New York, was the only Democratic president from 1860 to 1912. And just barely, as he beat James G. Blaine (R), the continental liar from the state of Maine, in 1884 by only 0.5% of the popular vote and only 37 electoral votes (in part because the Republican Mugwumps abandoned Blaine because he was corrupt). In 1888, Cleveland lost to Benjamin Harrison, restoring the normal pattern of Republican domination.
Harrison himself wasn't reelected in 1892, in part due to the candidacy of Populist James Weaver, who got 9% of the vote and won the typically Republican states of Nevada, Colorado, and Kansas as well as the new states of Idaho and North Dakota, which otherwise would have gone to Harrison.
In 1912, William Howard Taft failed to be reelected because he was challenged by his popular predecessor, Teddy Roosevelt. Taft and Roosevelt combined got 50.6% of the popular vote to Woodrow Wilson's 41.8%, but the Republican split allowed Wilson to get the most votes in 40 states and thus all their electoral votes. So two of the seven times a post-Civil War incumbent lost was due to a serious third-party challenger who sucked off many of the president's supporters. Now that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has opted out of the 2024 race, the chances of a split of the Democratic vote defeating Biden is very unlikely.
Now we come to the next three: Hoover, Carter, and Bush. All were victims of a recession or worse. Hoover, of course, ran during the Great Depression in 1932 and the voters wanted a new deal so they voted for the New Deal. Carter and Bush were unfortunate enough to preside over garden-variety recessions over which they had little control, but the voters tend to blame the president for a recession anyway.
We doubt that we have to explain the 2020 election to you. Suffice it to say that Donald Trump was exceptionally unpopular with 80 million Americans. The final blow, in his case, was not a recession, it was his handling of the COVID pandemic (which, of course, had an economic downturn as a major component).
Historical evidence thus suggests it takes unusual events or a serious recession to unseat an incumbent president who wants a second term. But even if there is a recession in 2024, that doesn't mean Biden is toast. Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and Barack Obama all had recessions during their first terms and still were reelected. The timing of the recession is important. If it is over by Election Day, the president can claim he conquered it. Of course, inflation is as bad—maybe worse—for a president. But voters have short memories. If inflation has been beaten back by Labor Day 2024, it probably won't hurt Biden.
A lot has been made of Biden's low job approval rating, around 43%, but that is not predictive of anything this early in the cycle. Bill Clinton was at 39% in his second year and still was reelected. Ronald Reagan dropped as low as 35% in his first term and was still reelected. Also, Biden's likely opponent, Trump, is even less popular. It wouldn't be the first time the lesser of two evils won an election.
Of course, history is only a guide. There could be unique issues in 2024 that haven't played a role before. Two that come to mind are Biden's age (currently 80) and abortion. One works against Biden and one works for him. We don't know how they will play out, but is it likely that millions of the 81 million people who voted for Biden in 2020 are going to say: "Biden is too old so I am voting Republican this time," especially when his probable opponent is only 3½ years younger? Of course, with Biden vs. the 44-year-old Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), the calculus changes.
But let's look at the age issue more closely. It is not the age, per se, that is the issue. Age is a really a proxy for health, so the question is: "Will someone in his 80s be healthy enough to handle the toughest and most stressful job in the world?" Woodrow Wilson had a stroke at 63 that incapacitated him. Had there been a Twenty-Fifth Amendment at the time, it would surely have been invoked. FDR, then 62, did not even attend his own nominating convention in Chicago in 1944 due to poor health. His inaugural speech in 1945 was only 556 words, the shortest since George Washington's, and lasted only 12 minutes because he couldn't manage any more. Ronald Reagan probably had early Alzheimer's disease in his 70s. Barring an unexpected health event, Biden is likely to be healthier on Election Day at 81 than Wilson was at 63, FDR was at 62, and Reagan was in his 70s. Age isn't everything, but Biden will have to convince people he is up to the job, particularly if his opponent is DeSantis or someone else who is under 70. (V)