Mar.06

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

How Trump Will Deal with DeSantis

Axios got a scoop about Donald Trump's campaign plans. Trump thinks that his only opponent with any staying power is Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). The others will fall by the wayside without his having to take them down. His approach to Ron DeSanctimonious, as Trump calls him, (Meatball Ron is apparently out), will have five parts, as follows.

• Social Security: Trump understands that his working-class base does not want for Social Security (and Medicare) to be scaled back or for the retirement age raised. This separates him from nearly the entire Republican establishment, which wants to gut the programs in order to do the bidding of big donors (who either don't like paying FICA taxes, or who don't want to get stuck with the bill when the Social Security trust fund runs dry). Trump doesn't give a hoot what the big donors want. When he was a congressman, DeSantis voted with the establishment to actively change the programs, including raising the age of eligibility. DeSantis can hop up and down and yell all he wants now that he won't change the programs, but Trump will hit back with "When he had the actual power in Congress to try to gut the programs, that's what he did. He's lying now."
  
  
• Disloyalty: Trump maintains that without his help, DeSantis would still be an unknown congressman. Trump will pound him for being an ingrate and mounting a challenge when Trump did so much to make him governor. Trump will also focus on how DeSantis fails the likability test badly. He won't call it the "beer test" because Trump himself does not drink alcohol, so no one could have a beer with him. He could substitute the "Big Mac test" though. That would actually be a twofer since it covers likability but is also a dig at DeSantis being an elite on account of degrees from Yale and Harvard Law School. In contrast, Trump has a degree from only one Ivy League school (Penn).
  
  
• Lackey for Paul Ryan: When DeSantis was a junior congressman, he took his marching orders from then-Speaker Paul Ryan. Trump hates Ryan and has said Fox News should fire him from its board. Ryan is the kind of establishment Republican Trump's base hates, and so Trump will do his best to convince the voters that DeSantis was (and is) Ryan's lackey.
  
  
• COVID-19: Although DeSantis resisted mask mandates, Trump is going to attack him for following the science at least a little early on in the pandemic. What the base believes is that Joe in the diner knows more about epidemics than Anthony Fauci, who is an M.D. and who has studied them for 50 years. Trump will go after DeSantis for not respecting Joe in the diner enough on health issues.
  
  
• Ukraine: DeSantis has been trying to avoid taking a stand on the war in Ukraine. Trump's position is simple: Russia good, Ukraine bad. He is going to attack DeSantis over and over on this. However, this is an area where that could backfire. DeSantis could say: "Unlike you, I hate godless Communism and don't want it spreading." He could attack Russia because it frowns on freedom of religion. That might resonate with the evangelicals.
  

So far, DeSantis is not taking the bait and not going after Trump. When the time comes, he can try to parry these attacks but more likely will go on the offense, rather than on the defense (see below). (V)