Dem
51
GOP
49
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) has decided that Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) sounds better and is going for a promotion. Her only potential serious competition is Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D). It is rumored that Benson is interested in running for governor when Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) hits her term limit in 2026. Generally speaking, being a United States senator is a better deal than being governor of a small and not-so-important state, like Vermont or Mississippi. On the other hand, being governor of a big and important state, like California or Texas, is a much more powerful job and a better springboard to the White House. Michigan is kind of in between, which is probably why Benson hasn't made up her mind yet.
In any event, with Slotkin running for the Senate, she won't be able to run for her MI-07 House seat, setting off a whirlwind. The district, which runs from Lansing to the edge of Detroit, is R+2 and very competitive. In 2022, it was the third most expensive House race in the whole country, with total spending of $41 million. Joe Biden won the district 50% to 49%. So Slotkin's move is going to create a real barnburner in central Michigan.
The candidate Slotkin beat in the 2022 general election, Army veteran Tom Barrett, has already jumped into the 2024 House race. Barrett may face Republican state Sen. Lana Theis, whose 2022 platform included stating that Democrats want to groom and sexualize kindergartners and teach 8-year-olds they are responsible for slavery. If she enters the mix, Democrats are sure going to root for her. Maybe even more than just root (i.e., some ratfu**ing). Barrett was a top-tier recruit last time and the state and national GOP will do what they can to help Barrett, especially since he is now well known in the district. Democrats hammered him on abortion last time and will do so next time as well, but he is a lot better than a nutter.
The Democratic field is murky. One potential candidate is Ingham County Clerk and former state Rep. Barb Byrum, who has appeared on MSNBC to debunk election fraud theories. She comes from a prominent (read: rich) Lansing family. Her mother is a former state senator and her father was once president of the Michigan Agri-Business Association. Byrum owns a small hardware store and her background as a small business owner could be a plus.
Another possible candidate is former state Sen. Curtis Hertel, son of a former Michigan House speaker. Others include Lansing mayor Andy Schor, state Sen. Sarah Anthony, and state Reps. Julie Brixie and Angela Witwer. In short, the Democrats have plenty of candidates.
Democratic insiders say that all the candidates are Lansing-based and wouldn't want to fight each other, so a long and bitter primary isn't so likely. Also Slotkin, the current occupant of the seat, is surely going to work behind the scenes to support the candidate she thinks is best positioned to beat Barrett. She knows the district well and she knows Barrett's strengths and weaknesses, so she is in a good position to figure out who would be the strongest. What she has to worry about, though, is making enemies because she really does not want some Black state senator to jump into the U.S. Senate race and force a divisive primary. (V)