Dem
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GOP
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We would not have thought that Jeb! would ever be relevant again. Heck, we're not sure he was relevant back in 2016, when he was running for president. Nonetheless, here he is, in the very first paragraph of this item.
See, as part of its ongoing efforts to promote Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) for president, but without saying it out loud, Fox put together a special entitled "Who is Ron DeSantis?", and decided that since DeSantis is governor of Florida, and Bush used to be governor of Florida, that Bush might have some useful insights. And here is what Jeb! said: "He's been a really effective governor. He's young. I think we're on the verge of a generational change in our politics. Kind of hope so. I think it's time for a more forward-leaning, future-oriented conversation, our politics, as well." Bush added that, when it comes to DeSantis running for president: "Who better to do it than someone who's been outside of Washington, who's governed effectively, who I think has shown that Florida can be a model for the future of our country?"
If you wish to see the video for yourself, you can see it here. And if you click through, you will see that the explainer for the video is: "Jeb Bush endorses Ron DeSantis for president." You can see why the video is described in that manner. Bush's words weren't just an endorsement, they were an Endorsement! (including exclamation point). If that is not an endorsement, we don't know what is. Keep in mind also that Jeb! knew full well he was appearing in a de facto DeSantis campaign ad.
But despite all of this, as soon as the "endorsement" made news across the country, Bush quickly explained that he was merely "praising" DeSantis, not "endorsing" the Governor. He also refused to answer any questions about who he would like to see as the Republicans' presidential nominee. In other words, Jeb! has been out of politics for the better part of a decade, and is unlikely to ever run for or hold political office again, but he's still a weasel. Or a hagfish, if you prefer (though Bush really isn't slimy the way Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-CA, is).
Now, if Bush had second thoughts because he reflected on DeSantis' undemocratic record, that would be one thing. But in the same interview, he referred to a DeSantis-led Florida as a "model" for the rest of the country. So, that's not the problem. No, the issue is that Bush is scared to death of stepping on Donald Trump's toes.
And that brings us to the point of this item. Many/most Republican elders, like Bush, don't want Trump to be the nominee again, but they aren't willing to say it out loud. Fox doesn't want Trump to be the nominee again, but won't say it out loud. The great majority of Senate Republicans don't want Trump to be the nominee again, but won't say it out loud.
Meanwhile, and in a development that is entirely related, Trump continues to do very well with the base, and thus to do very well in polls. For example, in the newest from Emerson, the former president leads the Governor by a staggering 30 points (55% to 25%). Echelon Insights has Trump up by 15 in a multi-way race (46% to 31%) or 11 in a head-to-head matchup (53% to 41%). Fox's first presidential poll of this cycle also has Trump leading DeSantis by 15 in a multi-way race (43% to 28%).
Quite clearly, there are a lot of prominent Republicans who are hoping that externalities will solve the Trump problem for them. They won't say it publicly, but you can bet that many of them hope Trump will be indicted and convicted, and that will remove him from the equation. Of course, there are some big maybes there; maybe he'll be indicted and maybe he won't, and maybe an indictment will derail him and maybe it won't. Alternatively, death or a major health problem would solve the problem, though Trumps tend to be long-lived. DeSantis actually launching his campaign, and taking Trump down a few pegs, would also theoretically do it.
However, there are some serious risks to playing both sides of the street. The longer that the party is divided between two candidates, the uglier it will be when one of them ultimately falls. As a matter of political strategy, there is something to be said for ripping off the Band-aid, lining up behind DeSantis right now, and leaving as much time as possible to heal the breach that is created. Alternatively, there is also something to be said for concluding that Trump still commands the base, and that, as in 2016 and 2020, there is no choice but to back him and hope for the best. But hoping that things just "work out" was the approach the GOP establishment took in 2016, and that is what got them in this mess in the first place. (Z)