Dem
51
GOP
49
A new NBC News poll nails down something that is widely believed but is now on more solid ground. There is some anecdotal evidence that Democrats are more willing to consider candidates other than their party's nominee than are Republicans. In other words, Democrats look at the candidates, their platforms, and what they want and make a reasoned decision. For many Republicans, all that matters is the little (R) on the ballot. The poll showed that among Democrats, 45% would consider backing a third-party or independent candidate for president whereas 52% would not. Among Republicans, only 34% would even consider a third-party or independent candidate and 63% will stick with their nominee, thank you.
That could matter in 2024 because the No Labels group, thought to be funded by right-wing billionaires, is planning to run a candidate. If that person siphons off more Democratic votes than Republican votes, that could throw the election to the Republican nominee. Democrats are very worried about this. They would prefer their voters to turn off their brains and just hunt for the (D) and leave it at that. Republicans aren't worried. They believe party loyalty will win out in the end.
Of course, a lot hinges on two things. First, can No Labels get on the ballot in many states (and which ones)? Getting on the ballot in Texas and California doesn't matter so much. Getting on the ballot in Arizona and Georgia matters a lot. Second, who the No Labels candidates are matters even more. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) hasn't ruled out being their nominee, but Manchin loves to be the center of attention and flirting with a possible candidacy gets him a lot of attention. On the other hand, Manchin is a very experienced politician. He knows full well he has zero chance of being elected president on any ticket whereas he still has a chance of being reelected to the Senate or even elected as governor of West Virginia as a Democrat. Tilting at windmills isn't his thing. In fact, he doesn't like windmills at all. Or solar panels.
Another unlikely candidate is Liz Cheney. She has said repeatedly that she will not do anything to help Donald Trump become president. Running as the No Labels candidate would certainly draw some Democratic votes from people who think she is a hero for being on the Jan. 6 Commission. She might also get some votes from Republicans who don't like Trump and who in a two-man race would reluctantly vote for Joe Biden. Thus her presence on the ballot would probably reduce the number of Democrats voting for Biden and also the number of Republicans reluctantly voting for Biden. The net effect would be to help Trump. She doesn't want that. We think this will keep her from being the nominee.
So who might sign up to be the candidate? It would have to be someone with a very high profile already to run against two candidates who are universally known. At least, if the goal is to win rather than to throw the election to Trump. It would also have to be someone who was not offensive to either party. Which high-profile milquetoast who likes publicity is available? Probably no politician qualifies. Maybe some high-profile businessman, like Ross Perot in 1992? However, he spent a fortune and didn't get a single electoral vote. The nominee has to be someone who either has a vast amount of money to throw away on a campaign or an elder statesman type businessman who has a fair amount of respect. Elon Musk falls into the first category and Bill Gates falls into the second category. However, neither has any experience in actual electoral politics (and the former is not a natural-born U.S. citizen) and just having a lot of money and being well known rarely does the job, as Perot found out.
However, it is worth noting that historically, early in the cycle, many people say they are open to a third-party candidate but by Election Day, when it is obvious that the third-party candidate can't win, they won't vote for one. If ranked-choice voting were normal, this kind of stunt wouldn't matter, but since RCV is very rare, a third party candidacy could make a difference. (V)