Dem
51
GOP
49
People close to Donald Trump say that not only is he leaning toward skipping the August 23 debate, but he is thinking of holding some newsworthy event to take attention away from it. It is not unusual for frontrunners to be less than enthusiastic about debates, but they rarely go as far as trying to sabotage them. Trump's decision may be dependent on whether he can get enough media coverage for his event. Of course, he can't get Fox to skip the debate and cover his event instead because Fox is sponsoring the debate. He could stream his event via his boutique social media site, but not many people would watch then.
There are other factors Trump must be considering before making a decision. First, if he is not there, many fewer people will watch and that deprives the other candidates of a chance to break through. Chris Christie can attack him all he wants, but if nobody sees it, what good does it do? Second, Fox cares a lot about ratings (and ad money). If Trump skips out, that will cost Fox viewers and money. Rupert Murdoch is not going to like that. Would that make him jump on Ron DeSantis' bandwagon? Probably not, but it could make Fox more neutral in the primaries and treat Trump and DeSantis as equals. Trump certainly doesn't want that. Third, the RNC wants all the debate participants to sign a statement saying they will support the Republican nominee. Trump doesn't want to do that so he can keep open the option of running as an independent if he isn't the nominee.
Trump's threat not to show up is not just idle talk. In 2016, he didn't show up at the debate just before the Iowa caucuses. Instead, he held a fundraiser for veterans. It was never really clear how much money he raised and whether any of it went to veterans, but Trump did lose the Iowa caucuses. He certainly doesn't want to risk that again, but skipping a debate in August may not matter if he shows up for the rest of them. Of course, if he skips all of them, things get, er, murky. (V)