Dem
51
GOP
49
Now that it is summer, what do people in New Hampshire do? They go to Lake Winnipesaukee and The Weirs, naturally. Oh, and to political rallies. Yup, they are starting, and Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) are beginning to go after each other. People and groups are starting to take sides—loudly. For example, the New Hampshire Federation of Republican Women hosted an event for Trump, so what did DeSantis do? He held an event at the same time an hour away to distract people from Trump's event. The Women were not amused.
But it is still very early, even in politically aware New Hampshire. Republican strategist Alex Stroman said: "The vast majority of people aren't even paying attention to the presidential primary." That could change when the first debate happens in August, but not yet. Still, both top candidates are out on the hustings in New Hampshire. They also have their teams running. DeSantis, for example, claims to have had his team knock on more than 80,000 doors already. Clearly, early or not, the campaign in the first primary state is in full swing.
It has to be. A standing joke in New Hampshire is someone asking a friend: "Who you gonna vote for?" and getting an answer: "I dunno. I've met all the candidates personally only two times so far."
It's nice that DeSantis is campaigning up in the Granite State, but he seems to have forgotten exactly where he is and why. At his first town hall, he mentioned Florida 80 times. It took him an hour to mention New Hampshire. Is he running for president of Florida and wants New Hampshirites to help out? (Hint to Ron: Tell the people of New Hampshire what you will do for them, like "I will save the lives of unborn babies right here in New Hampshire," or whatever.)
Clearly DeSantis is the underdog and Trump is the overdog in New Hampshire right now. A new poll from Saint Anselm College in Manchester, NH, has Trump at 47% and DeSantis at 19%. That's a big hill to climb for the Governor. Actually, more like the White Mountains of New Hampshire. Losing New Hampshire is one thing. Being crushed in New Hampshire is something else. Also interesting is that #3 in the poll is Chris Christie at 6%. One of the means of qualifying for the first debate is to score in two national polls and two early state polls (plus 40K donors), so this is certainly helpful to Christie. This is likely to stick as folks in the Granite State tend to march to the sound of their own drummer. Nikki Haley was fourth at 5% and Sen. Tim Scott was fifth at 4%.
The poll also asked about the Democratic side. There Joe Biden was at 68%, Robert Kennedy Jr. was at 9%, and Marianne Williamson is at 8%. However, if the DNC sanctions anyone who files to run in New Hampshire, Biden probably won't file and one of the others could win, unless Biden supporters write in his name en masse. (V)