Dem
51
GOP
49
If the Republicans are to retake the Senate, they will almost certainly need to flip the seats in West Virginia and Montana. Joe Manchin looks to be in trouble in the former, but it's going to take a pretty good candidate to knock off Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) in the latter. After all, Tester has won statewide three times, and so he knows a few things about succeeding as a member of the minority party.
Yesterday, the GOP got the excellent candidate they need in Tim Sheehy who, as expected, declared his intent to run for the seat. Sheehy is young (37), charismatic, and a former Navy SEAL. He is also an entrepreneur who founded a company that specializes in aerial firefighting. In a state known for its interest in vigorous masculinity, the candidate certainly fits the bill.
This is not to say that Sheehy has no weaknesses. He has zero political experience, first of all. That's not disqualifying these days, of course, particularly in the current iteration of the Republican Party. However, untested candidates are also the ones that tend to say stupid, impolitic things (see Walker, Herschel; Oz, Mehmet; Bolduc, Don). Another problem is that Sheehy has only been a resident of Montana since 2014. That's not so much of a problem in some states, but in Big Sky country, voters tend to look askance at anyone whose family hasn't been present since, oh, World War II.
Sheehy's biggest challenge, however, is that he's got to face off against Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) in the primary. Rosendale is a fire-breathing Trumper who has already lost a Senate race to Tester (in 2018). The presence of a far-right opponent could force Sheehy to tack rightward, leaving him less electable in the general, assuming he makes it that far. Having a competitive primary can also drain one's campaign coffers but, in this case, who are we kidding? It's Montana. You can buy all the TV advertising in the state for the next 6 months for roughly the same cost as a used Toyota.
The Tester campaign knows full well that Sheehy is much more dangerous to them than Rosendale is, and has already begun campaigning against the newly declared candidate. In particular, focusing on the carpetbagger angle, a member of Tester's campaign told reporters that the Senator has farm equipment that's been in Montana longer than Sheehy has. If it comes to it, Team Tester will use that same angle against Rosendale, who has himself only been in Montana since 2002, and retains the pronounced Maryland accent he picked up in his youth. However, it is clear that Sheehy is the only potential opponent who calls for Democratic counter-campaigning RIGHT NOW. (Z)