Dem
51
GOP
49
Probably something like 85-90% of voters have picked one of the parties and will vote for a yellow dog if their party puts one on the ballot. But there is a small slice of voters who are on the fence. Some like aspects of each party and some don't pay much attention to politics and don't really know what is going on. Given how close elections are now, this small slice of independents is increasingly important. Roughly half of the independents are women, which makes sense since roughly half of Americans are women, and they are increasingly at odds with the culture war the Republicans are making central to their platforms. In particular, the Republicans' positions on abortion and LGBTQ+ rights do not sit well with many independent women. This is becoming a big problem for Republican candidates.
A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll shows that by a margin of 68%-20%, independent women oppose the Dobbs decision. Worse yet for Republicans, 75% of them said abortion should be legal in all or most cases. And worst of all, 85% said abortion would be one of the top issues determining their vote. In addition, 63% of independent women support LGBTQ+ rights. Republicans are going to have a hard time with this important swing group.
The poll also asked about Trump's legal problems. Among independent women, 57% said that his indictments made them less likely to vote for him. Among independent men, it was 48%. (V)