Jun.05

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Both Parties Hope to Rebound in 2024

Both parties had poor showings in some states in 2022 and are determined to do better in 2024. Here are four states where a lot of effort will be expended by one party or the other next year:

• Pennsylvania: This was a disaster for the Republicans last year. Doug Mastriano was crushed by 15 points in the gubernatorial race and Mehmet Oz lost in the Senate race. It was that old "candidate quality" thing. Fortunately for the Republicans, Mastriano consulted with his wife and God and apparently one of the two vetoed a Senate run against Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA). Maybe the Republicans can find a better candidate against Casey, although beating a popular incumbent is never easy, even in a swing state. There are also three House races where the Republicans have hopes of knocking off incumbent Democrats. There are Reps. Matt Cartwright in PA-08 (PVI of R+4), Chris Dluizio in PA-17 (EVEN), and Susan Wild in PA-07 (R+2).
  
  
• Michigan: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) crushed Tudor Dixon by 11 points in another example of "candidate quality matters." Also, a pro-abortion measure passed by 14 points last year. The big race here is the open Senate seat. The Democrats have a strong candidate in Elissa Slotkin and are pretty unified around her. The Republicans don't have a candidate yet, but are hoping for one better than Dixon. Two key House races are Slotkin's MI-07 open seat (R+2) and Dan Kildee's MI-08 (R+1). They will get lots of attention.
  
  
• New York: Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) won a full term in 2022, but only by 6 points, which may have dragged down some House candidates. Democrats are going to try to knock off six House Republicans next year: Reps. Anthony D'Espositio in NY-04 (D+5), Nick LaLota in NY-01 (R+3), Mike Lawler in NY-17 (D+3), Marc Molinaro in NY-19 (EVEN), "George Santos" in NY-03 (D+2), and Brandon Williams in NY-22 (D+1). In a blue wave, all of these could turn blue.
  
  
• California: Gov Gavin Newsom (D-CA) won reelection by 18 points, but by California standards that is a middling performance. Joe Biden carried the state by 29 points in 2020. There are five House Republicans in districts that Biden won in 2020, and all of them will be big battlegrounds. They are Reps. John Duarte in CA-13 (D+4), Mike Garcia in CA-27 (D+4), Young Kim in CA-40 (R+2), Michelle Steel in CA-45 (D+2), and David Valadao in CA-22 (D+5). In addition, Republicans Kevin Kiley in CA-03 (R+4) and Ken Calvert in CA-27 (R+3) are in for competitive races in districts Trump narrowly won.
  

The bottom line is that the House is definitely up for grabs with so many vulnerable Republicans in Democratic or swing districts. (V)