Jul.18

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

"Highlights" of Turning Point Straw Poll

Turning Point USA (TPUSA) is one of the many, many right-wing organizations, and it stages one of the many, many right-wing conferences that take place each year. It's among the more prominent ones, however, and a somewhat useful barometer of what the activist class is thinking. Yesterday, the TPUSA straw poll results were released. Here are the big takeaways:

• Onward, Donald!: The members of TPUSA, being of the far-right-activist stripe, love, love, love themselves some Trump. Of those who cast ballots (straws?), 85.7% want the former president to be the Republican standard-bearer for 2024. By contrast, just 4.3% want Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). It is true that these are Trump's people, and it is also true that Trump actively courted TPUSA support while DeSantis did not. Still, losing 20-to-1 among the people who are most likely to donate money and to knock on doors is not an auspicious sign for the Governor's presidential hopes.
  
  
• Ron Who?: The TPUSA attendees were also asked to imagine a world where Trump is not a presidential candidate. Should such a terrible, awful thing come to pass, the TPUSA folks decided their next favorite option is... Vivek Ramaswamy, who was chosen by 51.2% of respondents. In second place was... Donald Trump, with 21.4%. It is not clear if respondents cannot read directions, or if they cannot read at all, or if they would prefer a dead/imprisoned/withdrawn-from-the-race Trump over a real, live candidate. DeSantis did finish third here, but with just 13.5% support. The hearts of the die-hard Trumpers are clearly lost to the Governor, and without them, how can he possibly win the nomination? Much less the White House?
  
  
• Debatable: Trump cares most about his own opinion. In second place is the collective opinion of his adoring supporters. And 59.4% of them are looking forward to the presidential candidates' debates. If there is any one piece of information that persuades Trump to show up, that piece of information is it. That said, the TPUSA attendees don't much care for the RNC, with 77.3% saying they would never donate money to the Party's central committee. So, if the former president decides to skip the debates, he can blame the RNC and the cultists will largely accept that.
  
  
• What Better for a Sinking Ship than a Lake?: The running mate that the TPUSA folks like the best is "Governor" Kari Lake (R), who was supported by 30.8% of respondents. Next up was Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), with 24%, which makes sense since the gathering was held in Florida, and since many Republicans think that if they just choose a brown VP candidate, they'll get a lot of minority votes. In third was Ramaswamy, who is also brown, with 6.9%, followed by DeSantis at 5.2%.
  
  There is one problem with choosing Lake. If Trump has any interest whatsoever in countering the narrative that he's the looney tunes candidate who answers to the looney tunes wing of the GOP, she is... let's just say the wrong choice. Think John McCain and Sarah Palin, except worse. That said, Trump might not care, since he's always been about getting the base to the polls, and not about winning over undecided voters.
  
  
• Rain on Ukraine: The question that generated the most lopsided response, of all those asked by TPUSA, was this one: "Do you support US involvement in the war in Ukraine?" A staggering 95.8% said "no." It's no secret that Trump loves Vladmir Putin and hates Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The base is right there with the former president. So, if he wins in 2024, the U.S. will surely pull its support for Ukraine, Ukraine's war effort will probably collapse, Zelenskyy will probably be executed (or will "jump" out of a window), and Ukraine will become a state (or a client state) of Russia.

And that is the latest news out of TrumpWorld. (Z)