Dem
51
GOP
49
Ukraine will not become a member of NATO until after the war with Russia is over (if then). Sweden, on the other hand, has been knocking on the door of the alliance, waiting primarily for approval from Turkey. It would appear that approval is now forthcoming. Yesterday, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced that he was withdrawing his opposition to Sweden's admission, and would support their addition to the alliance.
It's hardly a secret that Erdoğan's opposition was largely about extracting concessions from Sweden and/or NATO. So, what did he get? According to NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg, the answer to that question is: "Sweden has amended its constitution, changed its laws, significantly expanded its counter-terrorism cooperation against the [militant Kurdistan Workers' Party], and resumed arms exports to Turkey." Our guess is that the most important part of that is the latter part. We also wouldn't be terribly surprised if the U.S. had tossed in a boon or two, that Stoltenberg "forgot" to mention. In particular, Erdoğan previously said that he wanted Turkey to be admitted to the E.U. as a condition for approving Sweden. Stoltenberg didn't say that E.U. membership had been arranged, but he also didn't say anything about Erdoğan dropping that demand.
Monday's news doesn't guarantee Swedish admission to NATO, but it does make it very likely. The Turkish parliament still has to approve the move, but that's pretty close to a rubber stamp, since the Turkish legislature's relationship to Erdoğan is similar to the relationship between the Florida legislature and Ron DeSantis (i.e., "Jump!" "How high, sir?"). Hungary has also yet to approve Swedish membership. PM Viktor Orbán insisted his country won't be the last to give approval, which implies he was just waiting for Turkey's blessing. That said, Orbán is both an inveterate liar and a nutter, so don't take his promises to the bank quite yet. He will almost certainly fall in line eventually, but he may demand some concessions of his own before doing so.
In the extremely likely event that Sweden becomes part of Team NATO, then it's another foreign policy win for Joe Biden. As we noted yesterday, American voters don't tend to pay too much attention to most foreign policy issues, unless those issues involve Americans getting killed. That said, given the sharp contrast between Biden's coalition-building and standing up to Russia versus Donald Trump's isolationism and kowtowing to Russia, 2024 could end up as an exception to the general rule. (Z)